The final Sunday of MLB’s regular season features 15 games all starting in the 3 p.m. ET hour.
The pregame narrative: Aaron Nola has had a nice year for the Philadelphia Phillies and should give his team a shot to lead after five against the Washington Nationals. Elsewhere, bet on the Atlanta Braves to beat the Kansas City Royals.
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Best bet: Phillies F5 moneyline (-121)
The Phillies’ 94 wins through 161 games were enough to earn them a bye through the wild-card round.
After today’s contest, we won’t see them play until Oct. 5 at Citizens Bank Park against an undecided NLDS opponent. Rob Thomson could elect to rest some starters, but that wouldn’t make much sense given the lengthy time off they’ll already have.
One person who will be playing is Nola, and that’s good enough for me.
The veteran righty has a respectable 3.52 ERA this season and is coming off back-to-back quality starts (6.0 IP, three or fewer ER) against the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers.
Nola has seen plenty of this Nationals lineup and the results speak for themselves.
He’s started against the Nats three times this season and has held them to just two earned runs across 19.1 IP. In 84 combined at-bats the Nats are batting .202 against Nola with a .250 slugging percentage, per Baseball Savant.
On the other side, Washington sends Jake Irvin to the bump and he’s struggled to contain the Phillies.
Philadelphia is batting .274 with a .476 SLG against Irvin in 91 combined plate appearances. The righty also has a concerning 4.54 ERA at home and a 5.24 ERA in September.
Key stat: Philadelphia cashed this bet in each of Nola’s three starts against Washington this year.
Quick pick
Braves -1.5 (-110): The Braves are one of three teams (Mets, Diamondbacks) fighting for the remaining two NL wild-card spots. A few weeks ago it looked like Atlanta would be missing out but its recent heater has the squad in pole position.
Atlanta has won five straight games and seven of its last eight, covering this spread in six of those matchups.
The fact that the Braves are even contending for a wild-card spot without Ronald Acuna Jr., Spencer Strider and Austin Riley is crazy. But they’ve managed to keep chugging.
Today, they should stay hot against the ice-cold Kansas City Royals.
KC has lost 18 of its last 30 games and flamed out in the AL Central battle. Fun fact, if you take away all of the Royals’ games against the Chicago White Sox, against whom they went 12-1, they would have a losing record (73-75).
Charlie Morton gets the ball for Atlanta opposite Alec Marsh, and the former has been cruising. Morton has a 3.12 ERA in his last seven games while Marsh has a 5.01 ERA in the same span.
Picks made at 9:26 a.m. ET on 09/29/2024.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.