The MLB playoff picture is almost set in stone but there is still value on the betting board today.
The pregame narrative: The Los Angeles Dodgers are one win away from clinching home-field advantage and I expect them to start hot in Denver. Elsewhere, take the under in a matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics.
Check out these MLB best bets for Sept. 28.
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Best bet: Athletics/Mariners under 7.5 runs (-108)
The Mariners’ playoff hopes are dead and the culprit is an anemic offence.
Seattle ranks 22nd in runs per game (4.14), 29th in batting average (.224), and 30th in strikeout rate (26.9%). The team’s bats have heated up in September but it is too little too late.
With nothing to play for, I can see this game being a slog.
Joey Estas gets the ball for the Athletics and the second-year starter hasn’t had a great year. He has a 4.99 ERA but has done well against this Mariners lineup.
In three starts, Estas has held Seattle to five runs and a .167 batting average.
On the other side, Emerson Hancock sees the A’s for the first time. The righty has put together a pair of decent starts since returning from Triple-A, and just held the Texas Rangers to two runs over 5.0 IP.
Three of Seattle’s last four games have gone under this total as have each of Oakland’s last three.
Key stat: The Mariners (4.14 runs/game) and Athletics (3.96) rank 22nd and 26th in scoring.
Quick picks
Dodgers to lead after three innings (-121): Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s stats against the Colorado Rockies don’t look pretty. In 31 plate appearances (two starts) the Rockies are batting .370 with a .519 SLG.
But it’s fair to say the Japanese rookie has had a bit of bad luck. According to Baseball Savant, Colorado’s .387 xSLG is noticeably lower.
In his first start against the Rockies, he held them to one earned run in 6.0 innings before allowing four earned runs in 3.0 IP last week. I’m confident enough in the righty’s stuff that he’ll have a good outing.
Yamamoto has a solid 2.96 ERA on the season and an 85th-percentile K rate.
And even if he struggles, Los Angeles is more than capable of blowing Antonio Senzatela out of the water.
Shohei Ohtani is on another planet right now with 24 hits in his last 34 at-bats (.706 batting average, six doubles, six home runs). And he’s just one piece of baseball’s deadliest offence. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez are three of 12 Dodgers with a wRC+ above 110.
L.A. has scored 18 runs in its last two games and should come out of the gate firing tonight.
Picks made at 9:58 a.m. ET on 09/28/2024.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.