After an impressive road win on Monday Night Football last week, the Washington Commanders are back on the road to face the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Trey McBride has been ruled out for Arizona, which makes both Marvin Harrison Jr. and James Conner compelling options to produce. As for Washington, I like Terry McLaurin to build off Monday’s stellar effort in the receiving game.
Check out our Commanders vs. Cardinals predictions for the matchup on Sept. 29.
Commanders vs. Cardinals SGP predictions
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Parlay: Harrison over 59.5 receiving yards + Conner anytime TD + McLaurin over 49.5 receiving yards (+400)
Harrison over 59.5 receiving yards (-182): With or without McBride, this is a line Harrison should clear against most teams. And he absolutely should clear it against the Commanders.
To put it kindly, Washington’s pass defence has been … generous to its opponents. Since the start of last year, they’ve allowed 187.5 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts.
Harrison was quiet in his NFL debut, but he’s since exploded for 194 yards and three TDs over the past two weeks. He’s also run a route on every Cardinals passing play this season.
All three of Washington’s opponents have had a receiver eclipse the 80-yard mark. That should also be in play for Harrison, but in a parlay format, I prefer a slightly smaller ask.
SGP legs
Conner anytime TD (-150): Arizona was caught chasing the game last week in a loss to the Detroit Lions (a game the Cardinals never led). As a result, Conner’s workload wasn’t nearly as juicy as usual.
But despite garnering just 10 touches — well below his 17.9-touch average since the start of last year — Conner was actually on the field for a season-high 75% of snaps, per FootballGuys.com. So it doesn’t seem like Arizona wants to reduce his role.
Though I expect the Cardinals can march most of the field through the air, Conner is someone who should be called upon to cash in near the goal line.
The eight-year veteran has 10 red zone carries so far and scored in Weeks 1 and 2.
McLaurin over 49.5 receiving yards (-152): Did McLaurin unlock something with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels last week? I sure hope so.
In their first two games together, QB1 and WR1 only connected for 39 receiving yards.
The script flipped in Week 3, though, as McLaurin hauled in four of six targets for 100 yards and a score. That included the game-sealing grab on a mile-high heave from Daniels in crunch time.
The fact that Daniels even threw that ball to McLaurin shows a level of trust between the duo that should be encouraging to bettors.
McLaurin has 50-plus receiving yards in 12 of 20 games since last season. And it seems like the best is still to come for him and Daniels.
Picks made at 3:30 p.m. on 09/27/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.