The Arizona Diamondbacks are playing for their postseason lives this weekend in a series against the San Diego Padres.
The pregame narrative: San Diego has already clinched a wild-card spot and now enters a potential playoff series preview against Arizona. I’m fading Merrill Kelly’s outs prop tonight while backing Fernando Tatis Jr. to score a run.
Check out my Padres vs. Diamondbacks prop picks for Sept. 27.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks prop picks
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Best Bet: Kelly under 17.5 outs (-115)
This game will have a playoff atmosphere, especially on Arizona’s side. That might make you think the D-backs would push Kelly to go deep, but I actually think the opposite is more likely.
Let’s say tonight’s contest is within a couple of runs as it reaches the sixth inning. Wouldn’t Arizona rather play the matchup game with its bullpen rather than run Kelly through San Diego’s order a third time?
Also, Kelly exited his last start prematurely due to a calf cramp — after exiting early with a hamstring cramp two starts before that. So Arizona might not be able to push him even if it wanted to.
The Diamondbacks should have their full array of relief options, too. They were off on Thursday and only used six total relievers over their three previous games.
None of Arizona’s relief arms have pitched more than once since Tuesday (and a handful haven’t pitched at all).
The Padres’ active lineup has seen plenty of Kelly (173 plate appearances) and has a .404 SLG against him. Last season, Kelly went under this outs prop in both matchups against San Diego.
Key stat: Kelly has gone under 17.5 outs in five of his past eight starts, averaging 16.3 outs in that span.
Quick pick
Tatis over 0.5 runs (-110): I tailed this prop bet yesterday and Tatis didn’t cash. But he did get on base twice. I’ll chalk that up to a good process and a poor result.
I still like the bet tonight, thanks in large part to Tatis’ strong track record against Kelly. The all-star outfielder is 8-for-22 (.364) against Kelly with four homers, a double and three walks. That equates to a 1.395 OPS.
Another home run from Tatis would be ideal because that cashes the bet instantly. But the Padres’ strong offence — fourth in wRC+ in the second half — should bring him around as long as he finds a way on base.
Tatis has a 1.030 OPS over his past 20 starts and has scored 16 runs in that span.
Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET 09/27/2024.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.