For the final time this year — at least in the regular season — the San Diego Padres face the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The pregame narrative: Walker Buehler is in a spiral, which makes both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill worth playing on various prop markets. I’m backing Merrill in an even-money parlay with Freddie Freeman while also taking the over on Joe Musgrove’s strikeout prop.
Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks for Sept. 26.
Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks
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Best Bet: Tatis over 0.5 runs (-115)
Tatis is hot right now, Buehler is not, and their head-to-head history skews heavily in Tatis’ favour.
After missing most of the summer with a leg injury, Tatis returned to the lineup in September and didn’t miss a beat. He’s batting .295 with a .966 OPS this month and has scored 14 runs in 19 games.
I wouldn’t mind backing Tatis to go over 1.5 bases (-118), as he’s notched an extra-base hit in 10 of his past 13 games. But getting a slightly better price for Tatis to score is compelling.
Either way, Tatis should be able to do damage against Buehler, who unlike Tatis has really struggled since his return from the injured list.
Over his past seven starts, Buehler has allowed an .860 opponent OPS, as well as 24 runs through 33.1 innings.
Tatis is 8-for-26 (.308) against Buehler with four home runs. From the No. 2 spot in San Diego’s lineup, I like his chances of finding his way across the plate.
Key stat: Tatis has scored in 51 of 96 starts this year — including 29 of his past 50.
Quick picks
Musgrove over 5.5 Ks (-110): This is a toss-up, so the price is perfectly fair. It really depends on what you think of Musgrove’s recent heater.
Like the Padres, Musgrove is peaking at the best time and flashing his best stuff in the stretch run. He’s cashed this over in six of his past seven starts, averaging 7.1 Ks per outing in that span.
The Dodgers aren’t an ideal matchup, as they have the 10th-lowest K rate in the majors (21.5%). And Musgrove has gone under 5.5 Ks in all three starts against L.A. since the start of last year.
Then again, Musgrove’s K rate against the Dodgers’ current lineup (23.0%) is solid over a hefty 217-plate-appearance sample.
If Musgrove can get through six innings — as he has in five of his past six starts — he’s a great pick to cash this bet.
Parlay: Freeman, Merrill 1+ hits each (+100): If you’re looking for something on the Dodgers’ side, I think Freeman is the guy to bet on tonight.
He has a hit in 100 of 146 games — as well as four multi-hit games in his past seven. Freeman is also 13-for-30 (.433) with four walks against Musgrove, so he sees the Padres starter quite well.
Betting on Freeman to merely get a hit has a lot of juice, but we can bring it up to even money by adding Merrill to the mix.
The NL Rookie of the Year contender is batting .306 this month and has recorded a hit in 19 of his past 28 starts. He’s also 2-for-2 against Buehler.
Picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET 09/26/2024.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.