We’re into Week 4 of the NFL season and it’s been a whirlwind so far.
The largest favourite of each week has lost outright and underdogs of six-plus points are a whopping 12-1 ATS this year. Will the dogs keep barking this Sunday? Or will the favourites take care of business? There’s only one way to find out.
Check out our NFL Week 4 ATS picks for predictions and analysis on every game.
NFL Week 4 ATS picks
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs and Chris Toman offer up their NFL Week 4 ATS picks for all 16 games.
NFL odds as of 11:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024.
Click odds from any game to add selections to your betslip.
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Cowboys vs. Giants (Thursday, Sept. 26: 8:20 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Dallas -5.5
Horrobin says: The Cowboys and Giants are both 1-2 with wins over the Browns. But I still think there’s a fair bit of separation when you look at their recent head-to-head results. Since 2021, Dallas is 6-0 against New York with an average victory margin of 21 points. And the Cowboys have covered this number every time.
Pick: Cowboys -5.5
NFL Week 4 ATS picks: The Sunday slate
Bengals vs. Panthers (Sunday, Sept. 29: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Cincinnati -4
Perri says: The Panthers looked like a football team last week and all it took was benching No. 1 pick Bryce Young. With Andy Dalton at the helm, I expect Carolina to deliver a death blow to the reeling Bengals. Cincinnati is 0-3 and has lost twice as touchdown-plus favourites.
Pick: Panthers +4
Broncos vs. Jets (Sunday, Sept. 29: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: New York -7.5
Horrobin says: I’d rather tease the Jets below a touchdown in a parlay, but if I have to take someone at this number, I’m still riding with New York. Aaron Rodgers looked sharp last Thursday in a comfortable home win, and now the Jets are home again with extra rest. New York has the second-most sacks in the NFL and should torment Bo Nix, whose offence scored just six points against the Steelers in Week 2.
Pick: Jets -7.5
Jaguars vs. Texans (Sunday, Sept. 29: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Houston -6
Horrobin says: The last time Trevor Lawrence won was at NRG Stadium last season. But I’m not using that as justification to ride with the visitors. Lawrence is 0-8 since, and his Jaguars have failed to surpass 17 points in any of their three games this year. Houston, meanwhile, is averaging 25.9 points per game at home since C.J. Stroud took over.
Pick: Texans -6
Rams vs. Bears (Sunday, Sept. 29: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Chicago -3
Horrobin says: Chicago trailed by 17 points at home in Week 1 before allowing Will Levis to blow the game for the Titans. Since then, the Bears have lost back-to-back games in which they never led. I just can’t lay points with Chicago right now. Last week, the Rams beat the 49ers as 6.5-point underdogs.
Pick: Rams +3
Vikings vs. Packers (Sunday, Sept. 29: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Green Bay -2.5
Perri says: Jordan Love might be back in the lineup for Green Bay but I still like Minnesota as a road underdog. Sam Darnold finally looks like a top-five pick and Brian Flores has the defence buzzing. The Viks just throttled the Texans and should keep things rolling against their division rival.
Pick: Vikings +2.5
Saints vs. Falcons (Sunday, Sept. 29: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Atlanta -2.5
Closs says: New Orleans started the season on fire but got a reality check in Week 3. The offence scored 12 points against an Eagles defence that allowed 25.5 points per game going in. The Falcons have had close contests with the Chiefs and Steelers and own a win over Philly. I like Atlanta to win by at least a field goal at home.
Pick: Falcons -2.5
Eagles vs. Buccaneers (Sunday, Sept. 29: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Philadelphia -2
Closs says: These teams are coming off opposite results, as Philly upset the Saints while Tampa lost as a big favourite to the Broncos. I still don’t trust the Eagles, however. Philadelphia’s injury report is also littered with questionable tags, so give me the Bucs to cover.
Pick: Buccaneers +2
Steelers vs. Colts (Sunday, Sept. 29: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Pittsburgh -1.5
Perri says: Is Pittsburgh for real? Its defence certainly is, at least. That unit has allowed the fewest points per game and owns the best defensive EPA per play. Mike Tomlin should make Anthony Richardson’s life miserable and I trust Justin Fields to take care of the football.
Pick: Steelers -1.5
NFL 4 p.m. slate
Patriots vs. 49ers (Sunday, Sept. 29: 4:05 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: San Francisco -10
Perri says: Fading the Niners in Santa Clara seems dangerous but last year’s NFC Champs are operating with a skeleton squad. Christian McCaffrey is out while Deebo Samuel (doubtful) and George Kittle (questionable) don’t seem likely. I expect the Patriots to stack the box and turn this one into a slog. Let’s not forget New England upset the Bengals and forced the 3-0 Seahawks to overtime.
Pick: Patriots +10
Commanders vs. Cardinals (Sunday, Sept. 29: 4:05 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Arizona -3.5
Toman says: Washington has surrendered 30-plus points in two of its three games but is 2-1 and fifth in the NFL in scoring. Arizona is fourth. This is the only 50-point total of the week and should be a shootout. With the way dual-threat rookie QB Jayden Daniels is playing, getting the Commanders with the extra half-point on the field goal is the side I want to be on.
Pick: Commanders +3.5
Browns vs. Raiders (Sunday, Sept. 29: 4:25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Las Vegas -2
Toman says: What’s worse: Coming off a loss to the Panthers or the Giants? That’s what we’re dealing with here. Las Vegas at least has a win over Baltimore to its name. The Browns’ Deshaun Watson-led offence inspires no confidence and the team’s respected defence can only do so much. I have a lot more faith in the Raiders’ ability to get points in what projects as one of the lowest-scoring games of the week.
Pick: Raiders -2
Make your NFL Week 4 predictions
Chiefs vs. Chargers (Sunday, Sept. 29: 4:25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Kansas City -7.5
Closs says: Justin Herbert is making progress at practice, but even without him I think the Chargers cover this lofty spread. Backup Taylor Heinicke has experience as a starter and looked solid in a very short Week 3 appearance. The Chiefs continue to win games but by minimal margins. They’ve covered this spread in just three of their last 13 regular season games.
Pick: Chargers +7.5
Sunday and Monday night ATS picks
Bills vs. Ravens (Sunday, Sept. 29: 8:20 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Baltimore -2.5
Perri says: Buffalo is 3-0 while averaging 37.3 points per game and you’re telling me they’re underdogs? Josh Allen is playing out of his mind and Baltimore’s defence has taken a serious step back, ranking 25th in defensive EPA per play through three weeks. I’m riding with Bills Mafia until proven otherwise.
Pick: Bills +2.5
Titans vs. Dolphins (Monday, Sept. 30: 7:30 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Miami -1
Horrobin says: Whether it’s Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley, I don’t care who’s under centre for the Dolphins. I don’t trust that offence to put up points. Will Levis’ flurry of mistakes give the Titans a low floor, but I still feel like their ceiling is higher than Miami’s with him. Both teams are 0-3 ATS, so you can find a way to argue against them pretty easily.
Pick: Titans +1
Seahawks vs. Lions (Monday, Sept. 30: 8:15 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Detroit -3.5
Perri says: The only blemish on Detroit’s season is a 20-16 loss to Tampa Bay where it outgained the Buccaneers by 247 yards. The Lions are 9-3 at home since the start of last season (regular season and playoffs), covering this line in eight of those games. Seattle is unbeaten but it’s faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Sylar Thompson at quarterback. This could be a blowout.
Pick: Lions -3.5
Staff Week 3 + season-long records: Closs: 11-5 (28-17-3) | Horrobin: 8-8 (22-23-3) | Toman: 10-6 (22-23-3) | Perri: 5-11 (20-25-3) | Psihogios: 5-11 (16-29-3)
Picks made at 11:00 a.m. on 09/26/24.
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