Two elite arms meet when Corbin Burnes and Gerrit Cole take the mound tonight at Yankee Stadium.
The pregame narrative: The Baltimore Orioles would need a minor miracle to win the AL East at this point as the New York Yankees have a four-game lead with four to play. But I still think Burnes is going to shove and want to fade Aaron Judge as a result.
Check out my Orioles vs. Yankees prop picks for Sept. 26.
Orioles vs. Yankees prop picks
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Best Bet: Judge under 0.5 runs (-125)
Burnes has found it at the right time.
The early-season AL Cy Young contender had an awful August but rebounded nicely when the calendar turned, posting a 1.08 ERA across four starts this month.
He is coming off back-to-back outings against the Detroit Tigers where he allowed just five hits and no runs in a combined 14.0 innings pitched.
Detroit’s offence isn’t on New York’s level but I still like to see that type of production.
The fireballing righty has an excellent history against the Yankees, holding the lineup to a .145 batting average in 80 combined plate appearances. And the underlying metrics show that’s no fluke. New York has a 35% K rate to pair with a 0.175 xBA and 0.232 xSLG.
Fading Judge in any capacity is always dangerous. The soon-to-be AL MVP has 57 home runs and has scored in four straight games.
But Burnes has his number and I think this is a nice number to fade him with those batting behind also struggling against the ace.
Key stat: Judge is 0-for-6 against Burnes with a 0.174 xSLG.
Quick picks
Henderson over 1.5 bases (+128): Gunnar Henderson is on a roll right now, recording multiple bases in six of his last seven games.
He was 3-for-5 last night with three singles and now gets Cole, who he is 3-for-9 against with a double and a home run.
Cole is coming off his best start of the season: A complete game where he allowed just two hits and one run while striking out 11. But that came right after a start where the Boston Red Sox lit him up for five hits and seven earned runs in 4.1 IP.
This isn’t the Cy Young version of Cole and I’m happy to back Henderson.
Picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET 09/26/2024
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.