After a pair of home losses, the Dallas Cowboys hit the road to face the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: This should be a get-right game for the Cowboys, who’ve dominated their NFC East rivals in recent seasons. In addition to an alt spread in Dallas’ favour, this same-game parlay includes prop bets on Jake Ferguson and Malik Nabers.
Check out my Cowboys vs. Giants same-game parlay predictions for Week 4 below.
Cowboys vs. Giants same-game parlay predictions
Parlay: Cowboys -2.5 + Ferguson over 3.5 receptions + Nabers over 59.5 receiving yards (+265)
Cowboys -2.5 (-195): Dallas and New York are both 1-2 teams that have beaten the Cleveland Browns. But I think that’s where the similarities end.
Just look at their recent head-to-head results. Over the previous three seasons, the Cowboys are 6-0 with a +126 point differential against the Giants. That’s an average margin of three touchdowns.
Not every game has been quite that lopsided, but Dallas has won all of them by at least one touchdown. So teasing this spread down to less than a field goal seems like more than a fair ask.
A porous defence has been Dallas’ downfall so far, but New York’s offence doesn’t concern me. The Giants have only scored 45 points through three weeks (29th in the NFL).
If you’re bullish about the standard spread (Dallas -5.5), that would boost this SGP up to +360.
Other parlay picks
Ferguson over 3.5 receptions (-180): Ferguson was forced out of the Cowboys’ season opener with a knee injury, but he returned last week with a vengeance. He torched the Baltimore Ravens for six catches and 95 yards on 11 targets.
It’s often difficult to gauge a player’s usage after an injury, so it was nice to see Ferguson so heavily involved from the jump.
And based on how he closed out last year, there’s no reason to expect a drop-off moving forward.
Ferguson has now seen five-plus targets in 12 of his past 13 games, including the Cowboys’ lone playoff matchup last winter. Here’s a closer look at Ferguson’s production in that span:
- 7.5 targets per game
- 5.0 catches per game
- 4+ catches in 10 of 13
Last year, Ferguson commanded seven targets apiece in two matchups against the Giants. He’s a compelling volume play.
Nabers over 59.5 receiving yards (-205): The only truly trustworthy player on the Giants’ offence is Nabers, an astonishing rookie who’s currently living up to the hype.
With 271 receiving yards already, Nabers is fifth among all NFLers through three weeks. He’s also seen a whopping 37 targets, which is a positive indicator of how badly New York wants to put the ball in his hands.
Nabers has cashed this bet in all three games so far, and if the underdog Giants are playing from behind, I suspect they’ll have to air it out to him all night.
Picks made at 9:30 a.m. on 09/26/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.