Two alternate spreads and a moneyline pick make up this week’s NFL parlay.
The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-0 and I expect them to remain perfect against a mediocre Indianapolis Colts team. Elsewhere, buy points with the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots on the road.
Check out my Week 4 parlay picks for the start of the NFL season.
NFL Week 4 parlay picks
Go to full NFL Week 4 betting markets.
Parlay: Steelers moneyline + Saints +5.5 + Patriots +14.5 (+308)
Steelers moneyline (-125): Are the Steelers for real? As of right now, they’ve beaten teams quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins (first game back from an Achilles tear), Bo Nix (rookie) and Justin Herbert (left early with an injury).
We can question the competition level but we can’t question how good Mike Tomlin’s defence has been.
That unit has allowed the fewest points per game and owns the best defensive EPA per play, per RBSDM.
Now, it gets an unproven sophomore in Anthony Richardson who has only started seven NFL games. He’s looked shaky at best this year and Tomlin-led teams have a knack for beating up on young quarterbacks.
If Justin Fields can remain turnover-less, the Black and Gold should cruise to a victory.
Other parlay picks
Saints +5.5 (-205): New Orleans’ offence came crashing down to earth after putting up a combined 91 points through the first two weeks.
But the defence was still strong, allowing just 15 points to the Philadelphia Eagles in a game where they comfortably covered this spread. I say comfortably because New Orleans had a 12-7 lead and 84.7% win probability with under two minutes left.
Now it takes on the aforementioned Cousins who is beginning to find a groove.
But even with the Falcons looking better offensively I still think Klint Kubiak can dial up enough offence to cover this teased-up spread. Atlanta has allowed the sixth-most opponent red zone trips per game.
Patriots +14.5 (-195): Backing the Patriots in Santa Clara might seem scary but the San Francisco 49ers are operating with a skeleton crew.
Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are out and Deebo Samuel is listed as doubtful. The Niners have lost back-to-back games as a result and will have to lean heavily on the run game behind a strong offensive line.
Jerod Mayo would be wise to stack the box and force Purdy to make plays elsewhere. This game has all the makings of a slog and I just can’t see a 15-point blowout.
Don’t forget the Pats upset the Cincinnati Bengals as 7.5-point underdogs before forcing the now 3-0 Seattle Seahawks to overtime.
NFL picks made at 3:05 p.m. on 09/25/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.