The Toronto Blue Jays have nothing left to play for … but they can eliminate the Boston Red Sox from playoff contention tonight.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has lost five straight and fell in extra-innings yesterday. I’m not looking to back a side, though, and am instead taking player prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jarren Duran.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on Sept. 25.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
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Best Bet: Duran to score (+100)
This is a nice price for Boston’s leadoff man.
Duran has reached base safely 11 times in his last five games (seven hits, four walks) and has scored in three of those contests. He’s batting a respectable .285 on the season and leads the Red Sox with 108 runs.
Toronto sends Kevin Gausman to the mound and he’s gotten sparked by his AL East rivals lately.
In two starts against Boston this season, Gausman allowed seven earned runs and 11 hits in 11.1 IP. Duran was held hitless in one of those games but was 2-for-5 with a run in the other.
He’s done quite well against Gausman overall, going 6-for-16 with four doubles and a home run.
Gausman neutralized Boston’s lineup in the past with elite swing-and-miss stuff — he has a 35.2% K rate against the Bo-Sox in 88 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant — but that’s not the case anymore.
The righty’s 21.8% K rate (41st percentile) has taken a nosedive from his 31.1% mark last year (93rd percentile).
Duran should be able to get on base I expect someone batting behind to drive him home.
Key stat: Duran has scored in eight of 12 games against the Blue Jays this year.
Quick pick
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+100): Forgive us for sounding like a broken record but there’s good reason to continue backing Guerrero at the plate.
Our Jordan Horrobin took this wager yesterday and it cashed when Vladdy shot a third-inning double into centre field. Guerrero has cleared this line in 35 of 59 games since the all-star break, including three of his last four.
He leads MLB in batting average (.382) and is second in OPS (1.153) since the Midsummer Classic.
Tonight’s matchup against Boston’s Richard Fitts profiles as a favourable one for Guerrero. The rookie righty hasn’t given up a run in three starts but he has allowed 13 hits in 15.2 IP with a .259 xBA.
Fitts is mainly a two-pitch guy, throwing a 95-mph fastball 44% of the time and a slider 33% of the time.
Guerrero is slugging .562 against fastballs and .732 against sliders.
Picks made at 8:10 a.m. on 09/25/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.