The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants kick off Week 4 action on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Both teams are 1-2 with a win over the same opponent, but I don’t view them as equals. I like the Cowboys to cover a -5.5 spread and for Malik Nabers to shine in the receiving game.
Check out my Cowboys vs. Giants best bets for the Week 4 matchup on Sept. 26.
Cowboys vs. Giants best bets
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Best Bet: Nabers over 69.5 receiving yards (-124)
Nabers is the Giants’ offence. That is hardly a hyperbolic statement.
Through three games, Nabers has 23 receptions, 271 receiving yards and three touchdowns. That’s 37.1% of the Giants’ receptions, 45.2% of their receiving yards and half of their total TDs.
The sixth-overall pick from April’s draft has been an electrifying weapon for an offence that desperately needed one — especially in Year 1 of the post-Saquon Barkley era.
I don’t like to put my hope in Daniel Jones’ hands, but I don’t think even he can screw this up. At least not if he continues throwing to Nabers at such an excessive clip.
A whopping 37 of Daniel Jones’ 104 pass attempts have targeted Nabers, which equates to a 35.6% target share. For context, Tyreek Hill led the NFL with a 30.5% target share last season.
It’s fair to assume that Nabers’ piece of the offensive pie won’t remain this large, but even with some regression, he should have ample opportunities to collect 70-plus yards.
Nabers had 66 yards in his NFL debut against the Minnesota Vikings, who’ve had one of the league’s best defences so far (third in defensive EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com).
After that, he torched the Commanders and Browns for 205 yards on 18 catches and cashed this bet in both games.
Key stat: Dallas is 14th in defensive EPA per dropback and has allowed two opposing receivers to clear this line so far.
Quick Pick
Cowboys -5.5 (-110): Dallas’ Week 1 win against the Browns doesn’t look as impressive now as it did a few weeks ago, and the team has since dropped a pair of home games. So the ‘boys aren’t exactly rolling ahead of Thursday Night Football.
Still, the head-to-head dominance they’ve displayed against the Giants in recent seasons is something I can get behind.
Over the previous three seasons, Dallas is 6-0 against New York with a +126 point differential. That sounds made up … but it’s not.
More importantly, the Cowboys have covered this spread in all six of those games. Dak Prescott missed one of them and Jones missed two, but the results never wavered.
These teams have one common opponent so far this year: Cleveland. The Giants just beat the Browns by six, while the Cowboys’ win in Cleveland came by 16 points.
Picks made at 3:35 p.m. ET 09/24/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.