The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox for the second matchup in a three-game series tonight at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: Aside from one last opportunity for Loonie Dogs, there isn’t much to be excited about at this point in the Jays’ season. But that won’t stop the picks from flowing in, and tonight I like the under as well as a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. prop.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on Sept. 24.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
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Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-150)
I called for the under on last night’s game at this very number, and it cashed with ease in a 4-1 win for the Red Sox. Tonight looks just as promising for this bet.
Let’s look at Toronto’s offence first, which was two outs away from a goose egg last night but scratched out a run in the ninth inning.
The Jays have now scored four or fewer runs in 11 of their past 14 games. Their .328 SLG in that span ranks 27th in the majors.
A couple of Blue Jays hitters have done serious damage against Boston starter Brayan Bello (more on one of them in a moment), but he’s pitching well enough right now that that doesn’t concern me.
Bello has a 2.89 ERA and a .204 opponent batting average over his past eight starts. And he’s allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of his past 13 outings.
On the other side of the pitching matchup — and sorry for burying the lede here — is Bowden Francis. Next to Vladdy’s resurgence, Francis has been Toronto’s best story of the second half.
Since the start of August, Francis has a 1.66 ERA and a .120 opponent batting average in nine outings. That includes 7.0 innings of one-hit ball against the Red Sox on Aug. 29.
Francis absolutely has the goods to keep Boston quiet, while Toronto’s lineup has been untrustworthy as a whole.
Key stat: The Jays have gone under 8.5 runs in 18 of 23 games since Aug. 28.
Quick pick
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+115): His power numbers have cooled a bit this month, but Guerrero is still doling out plenty of quality contact. And as alluded to, he’s had plenty of success against Bello.
The all-star first baseman is 9-for-22 (.409) with two homers and three doubles against Boston’s right-hander. He’s gone over 1.5 bases in three of five matchups against Bello since the start of last season.
Like I said, Francis and Guerrero have been Toronto’s best stories in the second half.
Vladdy’s 1.158 OPS since the all-star break is second in the majors, and he’s cashed this bet in 34 of 58 games (58.6%) since then.
Picks made at 11:15 a.m. on 09/24/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.