The dogs have been barking in the NFL so far.
The pregame narrative: Underdogs of 5.5 points or higher are 14-3 ATS with 10 outright wins. Most survivor pools are already wrapping up and I’m looking for two more upsets in Week 4. Take the Carolina Panthers over the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills over the Baltimore Ravens.
Check out how these NFL Week 4 underdog picks.
NFL Week 4 underdog picks
Go to full NFL Week 4 betting markets.
Best bet: Bills moneyline (+118)
Josh Allen and the Bills have been borderline unstoppable.
Through three games, Buffalo leads the NFL in points (37.3) and offensive EPA per play (+0.297), per RBSDM.com.
Allen has acclimated well to his new receiver room and is coming off a Monday Night Football masterpiece where he threw for 263 yards and four touchdowns while adding another 44 yards on the ground. He’s accounted for nine total touchdowns with zero interceptions so far.
Baltimore’s offence has been elite, too, ranking sixth in EPA per play (+0.104) and first in total yards per game (430.4).
The Ravens rely heavily on the ground attack and that’s Buffalo’s weak point defensively. But I think the Bills will put up enough points that Todd Monken will have to adjust his game plan to a more pass-heavy approach.
We’ve already seen Monken abandon to run against the Kansas City Chiefs in a losing effort.
Buffalo’s secondary ranks first in defensive EPA per dropback and it had Trevor Lawrence in a blender on Monday Night. Lawrence completed just 21-of-38 passes for 178 yards and an interception.
Key stat: Buffalo has won eight straight regular season games dating back to last season.
Week 4 upset predictions
Panthers moneyline (+180): Andy Dalton revenge game? Andy Dalton revenge game.
The Red Rifle was promoted to QB1 after two weeks of dreadful play from Bryce Young and immediately turned the Panthers’ offence around.
He completed 26-of-37 passes for 319 yards and three touchdowns in a blowout win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
On top of that, Carolina’s run game led by Chuba Hubbard looked formidable, as the Canadian turned 21 carries into 114 yards.
Could that win have been a dead cat bounce for the Panthers? Potentially, but I’ve also been disgusted with what Cincinnati is bringing to the table. The Bengals are 0-3, and they were favoured by more than a touchdown in two of those losses.
The offence is finally starting to click but it just lost starting guard Trent Brown for the season. And the defence just let rookie Jayden Daniels throw all over them for 254 yards and two touchdowns on a 91.3% completion rate.
On the road, I can see the wheels of Cincinnati’s season completely falling off.
Picks made at 11:39 a.m. ET on 09/24/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.