The San Francisco Giants start a new series on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The pregame narrative: Ketel Marte, who’s been hot at the dish, is the main target of my prop bets. For San Francisco, Matt Chapman’s total bases prop caught my interest, while I’m fading Mark Canha in what should be a tough matchup for him.
Check out my Giants vs. Diamondbacks props for Sept. 23.
Giants vs. Diamondbacks props
MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here
Best Bet: Chapman over 1.5 bases (+108): The Giants’ slugger has a good history against D-backs starter Eduardo Rodriguez.
Chapman has six hits in 14 at-bats and four of those were doubles. That equates to a .429 BA and a .714 SLG.
Since Aug. 27, the former Toronto Blue Jay is batting .286 with 11 extra-base hits in 19 games.
Backing Chapman alone is the way to go here as the rest of the Giants’ lineup is just 3-for-28 against Rodriguez.
Quick picks
Canha under 0.5 hits (+155): In 18 plate appearances against Rodriguez, Canha is hitless. That’s quite a large pitcher-versus-hitter sample size.
If Canha is in the lineup tonight, this bet has good value. His .212 xBA ranks in the sixth percentile. If he’s out of the lineup, this bet will simply void and there’s no harm done.
Although he’s been cashing the over on this prop lately, doing so in three of his last four starts, I’m comfortable taking a risk based on his history against Rodriguez.
Marte over 0.5 runs (-107):
Editor’s note: Marte isn’t in tonight’s starting lineup.
Marte has home runs in three consecutive games, scoring five runs along the way.
The second baseman is streaking again and continues to have a great season. Marte is hitting .295 with 35 HRs, 93 RBI and 90 runs in 130 games.
San Fran’s starter, Hayden Birdsong, isn’t the worst pitcher in the majors but his 4.74 ERA and 1.39 WHIP are concerning against Arizona’s offence.
Another stat that stands out for Birdsong is his 13.9% walk rate, which is one of the highest in the league and well above MLB’s 8.2% average. Marte has an 11.1% walk rate and has earned six free passes in the past five games.
Marte should get on base tonight and then it’s up to the middle of Arizona’s order to drive him home. But I don’t see that being an issue.
Key stat: The Dbacks lead the league in runs per game (5.5).
Picks made at 11:32 a.m. ET 09/23/2024.
Looking to get started? Sign up here.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.