For the third time this season, Chris Bassitt and Tanner Houck square off in a matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox.
The pregame narrative: Boston won both of the previous Bassitt/Houck battles, but I’m not targeting a side in this one. I’ve got my eye on the under while pairing Houck with Ernie Clement for a plus-money prop wager.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on Sept. 23.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
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Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-130)
The standard total tonight is 8 runs, but I’m willing to pay up just a bit to get the hook.
Bassitt hasn’t baffled many teams this year, but he does seem to have the Red Sox’ number. Here are his cumulative numbers against Boston in three starts this year:
- 19.2 innings
- 5 runs (2.29 ERA)
- 17 strikeouts
- 17 hits
Boston’s current lineup is just 15-for-76 (.197) against Bassitt with a 25% K rate and a .276 SLG. Rafael Devers was recently shut down for the remainder of the season, which certainly helps our cause, too.
On Toronto’s side of things, the bats really went cold last week. The Jays plated eight runs in the first game of their road trip … but they scored only nine runs over the ensuing five games.
Since Aug. 28, the Jays have gone under this run total in 17 of 22 games.
Houck, who’s seventh in the AL in ERA (3.21) has held Toronto’s current lineup in check. The Jays have just a .176 BA against him in 56 plate appearances, so I doubt their offence will spring back to life tonight.
Key stat: Since the start of last season, Bassitt has a 2.14 ERA against Boston in five outings.
Quick pick
Parlay: Houck under 4.5 Ks, Clement 1+ hits (+117): Houck has gone over 4.5 Ks in both outings against Toronto this year. So why am I fading him at this number?
Well, the Jays’ lineup isn’t what it used to be. Of his 12 Ks against Toronto this season, seven came against players who’ve either been traded or are on the injured list.
Houck altered his pitch mix this year to feature a sweeper as his primary offering. The Jays have the lowest whiff rate in the majors against sweepers (23.9%) and the second-lowest K rate (22.0%), per Baseball Savant.
Houck has been under 4.5 Ks in eight of his past 13 starts and should hit the under again. But there’s a lot of juice on the line, so I added in a hit for Clement.
And why not? Clement has hit safely in 12 of 16 starts this month and is batting .292 in September. He’s coming off a three-hit game in Tampa and is 1-for-2 with a double against Houck.
Picks made at 10:25 a.m. on 09/23/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.