The Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills kick off a Monday Night Football doubleheader.
The pregame narrative: The Jacksonville Jaguars will throw a hard punch as the team stares down an 0-3 start, but I’m picking the Buffalo Bills to win. The over on a teased-down total is my play with a pair of susceptible secondaries doing battle. Thirdly, I like Travis Etienne to top his receiving yards total.
Check out our Jaguars vs. Bills predictions for the matchup on Sept. 23.
Jaguars vs. Bills SGP predictions
Go to full NFL betting markets.
Parlay: Bills moneyline + Over 40.5 points + Etienne over 22.5 receiving yards (+280)
Bills moneyline (-265): Several factors are working in Buffalo’s favour in this contest.
The most glaring point is rest. The Bills are operating on a “mini bye” after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Buffalo has had three extra days to prepare for this Monday night matchup.
Secondly, it has the better offence. Josh Allen has kept Buffalo afloat as the team ranks third in points per game (32.5) through the first couple of weeks. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags, meanwhile, are tied for a lowly 26th in points per contest (15.0).
A good barometer for how these teams are defensively is by judging their performance against a common opponent: the Miami Dolphins.
Buffalo held Miami to 10 points in Week 2 while forcing Tua Tagovailoa to throw three interceptions. Jacksonville allowed 20 points to the Dolphins in Week 1.
I’m giving the Bills the edge on both sides of the field and will confidently pick them to win.
Other parlay picks
Over 40.5 points (-225): I’m not expecting this contest to be a shootout but these two offences should top this modest total.
I expect Jacksonville’s offence to look much better than it did in Week 2. An elite Cleveland Browns defence held the Jaguars to 13 points in a game where Lawrence completed just 14-of-30 passes.
There are some defensive injuries on the Bills that Jacksonville should exploit. Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are out at linebacker and slot corner Taron Johnson remains sidelined.
The latter injury should open up some space for Christian Kirk in the slot.
Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in each of its first two games, showing that it can almost get to this total on its own. I expect the Bills to look good offensively once again.
Etienne over 22.5 receiving yards (-110): If there’s one thing the Bills have shown defensively this year it’s that it’ll give opposing teams the underneath passing game.
Milano and Bernard excel in stopping the passing attack and having both of those linebackers out has opened up holes in the short areas of the field. Buffalo is surrendering the second-most receiving yards per game (72.5) to opposing running backs, according to Yahoo Fantasy.
Etienne is a polished pass catcher but he hasn’t received many opportunities to shine in 2024. He’s hauled in five of his seven targets for a measly 21 yards.
Etienne caught four of five targets for 48 yards against the Bills last season.
Picks made at 11:44 a.m. on 09/22/24.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.