The Buffalo Bills host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Buffalo is a sizeable moneyline favourite in prime time. With Jacksonville likely playing from behind, I expect it to finish the game with some solid offensive totals. Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne and Christian Kirk should lead the way.
Check out my Jaguars vs. Bills prop picks for Sept. 23.
Jaguars vs. Bills prop picks
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Best Bet: Lawrence over 16.5 rushing yards (-114)
Expect Lawrence to lean on his legs in a game where the Jags will likely be playing catch up.
The Jacksonville QB really hasn’t been able to prove that he can take over games by sitting in the pocket. His career record of 20-32 illustrates that there have been far more downs than ups in his four NFL seasons.
Lawrence is getting to the point where he can’t afford to play a safe game if he expects to live up to his lofty five-year, $275 million contract extension.
Injuries to Buffalo’s linebacker core mean the team likely can’t dedicate the same amount of speed and attention to opposing QBs. Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are both sidelined in this contest.
The Bills’ pass rush has been able to flush QBs out of the pocket this year. They’re tied for 11th in sacks (six) this season.
Opposing QBs have been gashing Buffalo on the ground. Kyler Murray totalled 57 rushing yards in Week 1 while the duo of Tua Tagovailoa and Skylar Thompson combined for 21 in Week 2.
Lawrence was running for his life against the Browns. Expect him to do the same against Buffalo.
Key stat: Lawrence totalled 45 rushing yards against Cleveland in Week 2.
Quick picks
Etienne over 22.5 receiving yards (-110): If there’s another area where Jacksonville can take advantage of Buffalo’s linebacker injuries, it’s in the short passing game.
Bernard and Milano are both excellent in coverage and their absences have made Buffalo susceptible to receiving production from opposing running backs.
The Bills are allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to the position (72.5), according to Yahoo Fantasy.
Etienne hasn’t been very involved as a pass-catcher this season. He only has 21 receiving yards through two games, but he’s very capable as a receiver. This could be a prime opportunity for him to showcase his chops.
Kirk over 42.5 receiving yards (-115): Jacksonville’s passing attack has been abysmal and Kirk has suffered as a result.
The Jaguars receiver recorded 30 yards in Week 1 before finishing with negative one receiving yards in Week 2.
That’s right: You, me and everyone else reading this had more receiving yards than Kirk last Sunday.
But there are some encouraging underlying stats working in Kirk’s favour. For one, he’s fifth among all wide receivers in average depth of target (18.4), according to Player Profiler. He’s also first among all wide receivers in route win rate (97.1%).
The stat that’s most encouraging about Kirk, however, is that he’s sixth in slot snaps (66).
He should be able to feast on a Buffalo secondary that’ll be missing slot corner Taron Johnson for a second consecutive week.
Picks made at 2:13 p.m. ET 09/21/2024.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.