The winless Cincinnati Bengals host the Washington Commanders in the second part of a special Monday Night Football doubleheader.
The pregame narrative: It’s only Week 3, but this is a huge game for the Bengals’ playoff chances. I expect Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase to take advantage of what is arguably the best matchup they could possibly have against a weak Commanders secondary.
Check out my Commanders vs. Bengals prop picks for Monday Night Football on Sept. 23.
Commanders vs. Bengals prop picks
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Best Bet: Burrow over 269.5 passing yards (+104)
It’s time for the Bengals’ pass offence to put up or shut up.
Cincinnati is at home and in desperate need of a win. Tee Higgins is back at practice and reportedly “planning” to make his season debut on Monday.
And look who’s coming to town? The most penetrable pass defence imaginable.
In 2023, the Commanders allowed the most pass yards and TDs in the NFL. And since the beginning of last season, they rank dead last in terms of EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com. To open 2024, they’ve allowed a passer rating of 100.0 or better to both Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones.
If Burrow can’t carve up this Washington defence, we have a serious problem.
After a very unassertive effort in Week 1, Burrow looked more like himself in Kansas City’s hostile environment last weekend. He threw for 258 yards and two scores on 7.2 yards per attempt.
KC has been one of the toughest defences on opposing quarterbacks since the start of last year. And as we’ve established, Washington is the polar opposite.
If this feels like a must-win game for the Bengals, it’s also a must that Burrow turns in a strong showing through the air.
Key stat: Burrow averaged 271.3 pass yards per game from 2021-23. As for the Commanders, they allowed 10 of 17 starting QBs to go over this passing yardage total last year.
Quick pick
Chase over 79.5 receiving yards (-122): Look at what Malik Nabers did against Washington last week — in his second NFL game — and then tell me Chase shouldn’t ball out on Monday night.
Nabers had 10 catches for 127 yards and a score for the Giants. Even when it was obvious that the ball was going his way, the Commanders couldn’t stop him.
Chase, a fellow stud wideout out of LSU, has been at this a bit longer than Nabers. He’s off to a slow start this year, but he hauled in 82.6 yards/game over his first three seasons.
You might think Higgins’ return would take a bite out of Chase’s opportunities, but I see it the opposite way. Chase has been routinely double-teamed so far and should see more single coverage now.
Daniels over 28.5 pass attempts (-121): Daniels is lightning quick and more than happy to escape pressure by tucking the ball. But I don’t think that’ll be necessary too often in this game.
Cincinnati has the lowest blitz rate (18.3%) and the lowest QB hurry rate (1.7%) through two weeks, per Pro Football Reference.
If the Bengals connect on offence the way I think they can, the Commanders might need to deploy a more pass-heavy attack to stay in the game. And Cincinnati’s lack of pressure so far this season is an indicator that Daniels will have time to throw rather than scramble.
Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 09/21/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.