A pair of leadoff hitters headline Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Luis Arraez is a hits machine and has a good matchup to keep on humming tonight. I’m also backing Lawrence Butler to score, while Minnesota Twins starter Pablo Lopez has an enticing plus-money strikeouts prop.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 21.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Arraez over 1.5 hits (+165)
If you’re not a frequenter of Baseball Savant, you might not appreciate this as much as I do. But Arraez has arguably the wackiest player page in the league.
He’s a free swinger who has impeccable contact quality and contact rate. Here’s what that looks like in terms of league-wide percentile stats:
Arraez’s low exit velocity and league-average xSLG make him a tricky hitter to back on his bases prop. But he puts the ball in play so consistently — littering the field with line drives — that he always seems to give himself a chance to collect multiple hits.
The NL hits leader (194) is on his way to earning a third consecutive batting title with three different teams. Only 17.5% of his hits this year have gone for extra bases, but we’ll take them any way they come.
As a leadoff hitter who rarely walks, Arraez tends to have between four and five at-bats on a nightly basis. That’s a hearty sample for collecting a pair of hits.
Arraez has gone over 1.5 hits in 14 of his past 23 games, as well as in 61 of 139 (43.9%) this season. The implied probability of this line is just 37.7%, so this prop has some value.
And it has even more value when you consider tonight’s opposing starter, Chris Flexen. The White Sox right-hander has allowed a .330 BA over his past 10 outings.
For context, Arraez leads the National League with a .320 BA. He also has succeeded against Flexen in the past and should be able to do so again.
Key stat: Arraez is 6-for-11 (.545) against Flexen.
Quick picks
Butler over 0.5 runs (+133): Yankees starter Carlos Rodon has been solid recently, and he held the A’s to one hit when he faced them in April. But you have to love this price for Butler to score.
Why? He excels in lefty-on-lefty matchups, posting an .858 OPS this season. And he’s scored in 20 of his past 29 games.
From Oakland’s leadoff spot, Butler is always in the best position to score. And he’s helped his cause with a .599 SLG from that top spot in the order — second in MLB among leadoff hitters behind only Shohei Ohtani.
Right after Butler in the A’s lineup is Brent Rooker, whose 179 wRC+ against lefties ranks sixth in the majors. I can definitely see the Butler/Rooker combo creating some offence for Oakland tonight.
Lopez over 7.5 Ks (+105): Lopez has only collected eight-plus strikeouts in eight of 30 starts. With that in mind, this might look like a questionable pick.
But the Red Sox are a dream matchup for opposing pitchers. They have the league’s third-highest K rate this year (25.6%), and that’s been ratcheted up to 31.0% over the past two weeks.
Lopez faced the Red Sox once already this season, and he fanned eight batters over 6.0 innings. On that night, the right-hander garnered 19 whiffs on 47 swings — an absurd 40.4% whiff rate.
Picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 09/21/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.