The Buffalo Bills welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars to town for the first leg of a Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 3.
The pregame narrative: After two solid wins, I like Buffalo to cover a 5-point spread at home. Jacksonville’s offence has looked questionable, but the over on Trevor Lawrence’s completions prop should be within reach.
Check out my Jaguars vs. Bills best bets for the Week 3 matchup on Sept. 23.
Jaguars vs. Bills best bets
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Best Bet: Bills -5 (-112)
After taking a pair of losses in the Sunshine State, the Jaguars head up to Western New York to face a Bills team that is off to a very encouraging start.
There were plenty of questions about what Buffalo’s offence would look like in the absence of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and the early returns have been great. With a harder lean on the run game, Buffalo cleared the 30-point threshold in Weeks 1 and 2.
I’m skeptical that Jacksonville can raise its offensive game to that level.
The Jaguars have scored just 30 total points through two weeks, and both of their losses have come by at least five. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t thrown an interception yet, but he’s completed just 51.0% of his passes and taken seven sacks.
Keep in mind that Buffalo’s home ATS record since the start of last year is merely 5-6. Pessimists might look at that and scoff about the team’s so-called home-field advantage.
But in those 11 games, the Bills have a +12.3 average margin of victory. So another way to frame that 5-6 home ATS record would be to say they failed to meet sky-high expectations about half the time.
A -5 spread is not a big ask. At that number, Buffalo would be 8-2-1 ATS at home since the start of last year.
The Bills do have a notable home-field advantage — as well as a three-day rest advantage — and I think that’ll help keep their early-season momentum rolling.
Key stat: Buffalo beat Miami last Thursday by 21 points. The week before that, Miami beat Jacksonville by three.
Quick pick
Lawrence over 21.5 pass completions (+105): Even though I’m fading the Jaguars, I could see Lawrence finding some positive regression in this game.
He owns a 63.4% completion rate in his career and averaged 23.1 completions per game last year. After a couple of rough weeks, the Jags might dial up some safer pass plays to get Lawrence in a rhythm.
Considering the Bills have allowed the fifth-fewest net yards per pass attempt (4.7), a flurry of checkdowns is something they’re probably willing to concede.
And since Buffalo has posted the seventh-lowest pressure rate so far (18.3%), Lawrence should have time to make the right read.
Lawrence cashed this over in 12 of 16 games last year. That includes a 315-yard performance — on 25-of-37 passing — against the Bills.
Picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET 09/20/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.