Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs visit the Atlanta Falcons for the third edition of Sunday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Kirk Cousins hasn’t looked fully healthy since coming back from injury so I’m backing the Chiefs against the spread as my best bet. I’m also taking the under on a Mahomes prop.
Check out my Chiefs vs. Falcons best bets for the Week 3 matchup on Sept. 22.
Chiefs vs. Falcons best bets
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Best Bet: Chiefs -3 (-112)
Both sides have strong defensive units, so let’s start by analyzing the quarterbacks.
Mahomes led the Chiefs to wins in the first two weeks, completing 71.7% of his passes for 442 yards and three touchdowns. He has thrown three interceptions but that rate should slow down as the season progresses.
The Chiefs lost running back Isiah Pacheco to the injured reserve last week but Carson Steele has looked like a formidable backup option in this scheme and KC’s offence should still be efficient.
For Atlanta, Cousins had a strong game against the Eagles, leading the Falcons to a 22-21 comeback win.
Philly gets a lot of hype but it has lost six of its last eight games and I think the Chiefs are a much stronger side — especially on defence.
The Eagles allowed the third most passing yards per game (255.7) last season while the Chiefs held opponents to the fourth-fewest (185.8).
Kansas City needed to deal with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and did so successfully and I expect a bit of a step down in quality with Cousins, who’s still not 100% from his injury.
Atlanta’s defence is very strong too, but I’m confident Mahomes can be more efficient moving the ball downfield.
Key stat: The Chiefs have covered this spread in eight of their last 10 regular season wins.
Quick pick
Mahomes under 35.5 pass attempts (-108): This isn’t a knock on Mahomes. This number just feels too high.
The Chiefs’ QB attempted 28 passes in Week 1 and 25 passes in Week 2. There’s an argument that with Pacheco on the IR, Mahomes will need to pass a lot more but I don’t think that will be the case.
Players like the speedy Xavier Worthy could have more run plays drawn up, for example. And as mentioned before, Steele has looked good through two weeks.
Another bet I was eyeing was the under on the game total. With that said, I expect a lot of drives to end with a punt.
Though I do believe Mahomes will lead the Chiefs to victory, I don’t think he’ll need 36-plus throws to do so.
Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET 09/20/2024.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.