Instead of backing a side or a total, I’m sticking three player props together for tonight’s Thursday Night Football same-game parlay.
The pregame narrative: Rhamondre Stevenson is a high-usage machine whose receiving work hasn’t been totally activated yet. I’m taking the over on Stevenson’s scrimmage yards total while banking on some modest production from Ja’Lynn Polk and Braelon Allen.
Check out my Patriots vs. Jets same-game parlay predictions for Week 3 below.
Patriots vs. Jets same-game parlay predictions
Parlay: Stevenson over 79.5 rush/rec. yards + Polk over 1.5 receptions + Allen over 19.5 rushing yards (+380)
Stevenson over 79.5 rushing/receiving yards (-150): True bell cow running backs are rare in the modern NFL, and I wouldn’t describe Stevenson as one. But he is still the clear-cut RB1 in New England
Stevenson has gone over 20 carries in both weeks, averaging 4.4 yards per tote. He’s played 100 of a possible 133 snaps and seen three-plus targets in both games, too.
He’s cashed this bet in both games so far, compiling 90 scrimmage yards last week after 126 yards in the season opener.
Stevenson’s high volume in the ground game keeps his production floor fairly high, but what piques my interest is the opportunity for greater efficiency as a receiver.
Through his first three seasons, Stevenson has averaged 5.0 yards per target. This year, he only has 15 yards on eight targets (1.9 YPT). If we see some positive regression on that front, he’ll be even more dangerous.
Other parlay picks
Polk over 1.5 receptions (-167): I like to pay attention to snap counts for rookie receivers. In Polk’s case, the early returns are good.
The second-round pick was second among Patriots receivers in snap share last week (60%). That’s a slight uptick from his 54% snap share in Week 1.
New England doesn’t have an alpha in its WR room, but Polk doesn’t need to be that guy to cash this bet.
What he needs to do is create trust with quarterback Jacoby Brissett, as he did last week by hauling in a TD catch in the red zone. He finished with two catches for 12 yards on three targets.
Other than that, Polk just needs to get open. According to Fantasy Points Data, he’s doing that better than any other rookie wideout so far.
In a game where the Patriots could be chasing, two catches from their rising rookie isn’t a big ask.
Allen over 19.5 rushing yards (-150): My guy Avery Perri was already on Allen’s rushing yards in his TNF prop article, so I’m just following suit.
Allen made the most of limited opportunities last week, turning nine touches into 56 scrimmage yards and two scores (including the winner) against the Titans. Breece Hall is a bulldog, but Allen has earned additional looks by averaging 5.1 yards per carry so far.
And though Hall practiced all week, he landed on the injury report with a quad injury. On a short week, wouldn’t it make sense to ease Hall’s burden a bit by turning to an electric rookie?
Whether the Jets are running out the clock late in this game, or simply looking to give Hall a breather at various points, I think Allen will get enough work to clear this total.
Picks made at 10:45 a.m. on 09/19/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.