An over, an under and a run line pick comprise today’s MLB best bets.
The pregame narrative: The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have two of the league’s most potent offences, and I think they’re in a good spot to put up a lot of runs tonight. Later on, Yusei Kikuchi and the Houston Astros look to earn another comfortable win over the Los Angeles Angels.
Check out these MLB best bets for Sept. 19.
MLB best bets
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Best bet: Phillies/Mets over 8.5 runs (-104)
The Mets put up back-to-back 10-spots to close out their home series against the Nationals, and tonight’s matchup should be a recipe for runs, too.
Phillies starter Taijuan Walker (3-6, 6.29 ERA) would have the highest ERA in the majors if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Since the start of August, opponents have a .355/.408/.646 slash line against him in seven outings (four starts).
The Mets have four runs on six hits against Walker across 9.0 innings this year, so he hasn’t been stung too badly. But New York’s lineup has a .490 xSLG against Walker (130 plate appearances), per Baseball Savant, so it’s possible they’re due for more damage.
With that in mind, I could take the over on the Mets’ team total. But I want in on the Phillies’ offence, too.
Philadelphia’s lineup is 11-for-42 (.262) with a .452 SLG against Mets starter Luis Severino. These high-scoring teams have pushed each other in the past and should light up the scoreboard tonight.
Seven of nine matchups between the Phillies and Mets this year have cleared this total.
Key stat: The Phillies (4.82 runs/game) and Mets (4.80) rank fifth and sixth in scoring.
Quick picks
Yankees/Mariners under 7.5 runs (-129): The New York Yankees crawled to a 2-1 win in extra innings last night and then popped champagne to celebrate clinching a postseason berth.
In typical hangover game fashion, I assume some of New York’s stars will get to watch today’s afternoon game from the bench. But please, monitor the Yankees’ lineup announcements closer to game time.
One guy who won’t get the day off is starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt (5-3, 2.41 ERA), who has allowed no more than three runs in any of his 13 starts this year. He has a 1.29 ERA over his past six outings.
Seattle Mariners starter Logan Gilbert (7-11, 3.24) is no slouch, either. And 19 of his 30 starts have finished under 7.5 runs.
Astros -1.5 (-125): A lot of pundits criticized the Astros for a presumed overpay in their acquisition of Kikuchi, but that deal has worked out awfully well for Houston so far.
Houston is 8-0 in Kikuchi’s starts, outscoring opponents by 2.4 runs per game. The Astros have covered a -1.5 run line in each of his past four outings — including a Sept. 13 matchup against the Los Angeles Angels.
Tonight, Kikuchi will rematch the Angels, who own a .684 OPS against left-handers (21st in MLB).
L.A. counters on the mound with Jose Suarez, who has pitched seven scoreless innings since returning from a minor league demotion … but he still has a 6.80 ERA in 42.1 frames this year.
The Astros just swept the Angels with a trio of run-line victories from Sept. 13-15.
Picks made at 9:58 a.m. ET on 09/19/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.