Believe it or not, I’m backing Andy Dalton and (indirectly) fading C.J. Stroud this week.
The pregame narrative: The Houston Texans face a revved-up Minnesota Vikings defence and I’m taking the under on the visitors’ point total. I’m also backing the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers against the spread as road underdogs.
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Best Bet: Texans under 23.5 points (+100)
Houston’s offence was humming to open Sunday Night Football last week. Stroud and the crew scored on four of their five possessions in the first half.
The second half was a different story, though. The Texans amassed just 89 yards and three points over eight drives.
There’s a lot of name-brand talent in Houston, especially after Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon joined this year, but the team isn’t a lock to put up a mid-20s point total. On the road against the Vikings, this is a nice spot to fade Houston.
Minnesota has only allowed 23 total points through its first two games. Last week, the Vikes put the clamps on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers, nabbing a pick and forcing three fumbles (one recovered).
Stroud’s home/road splits are worth paying attention to as well:
- Home (nine games): 305.1 pass yards/game, 106.7 passer rating
- Road (eight games): 232.0 pass yards/game, 94.6 passer rating
There are five newcomers in Minnesota’s starting defence. So far, that group has posted the fourth-best EPA (expected points added) per play among all defences, per RBSDM.com.
Under Stroud, the Texans’ offence has been notably less potent on the road. I think that trend will continue on Sunday.
Key stat: Houston has gone under 23.5 points in seven of Stroud’s 10 career road games. They averaged 19.5 PPG in those matchups.
Quick picks
Packers +3 (-115): I like Green Bay as an upset pick this week, so you know I have to take the Packers with some points, too.
Everyone at Lambeau Field knew Green Bay would rely heavily on its run game last week, but it didn’t matter that the cards were on the table. The Packers rumbled over the Colts for a victory as three-point dogs thanks to a stout defence and 261 yards on the ground.
Let’s not overlook Malik Willis, either, as the plug-in QB2 completed 12-of-14 passes for 122 yards and a score.
Now Willis faces his old team — the one that opted to recoup a seventh-round pick last month rather than rostering him — and it’s difficult to feel good about the winless Titans.
Tennessee is 2-9 against a -3 spread in Levis’ 11 career starts. The team’s defence will be much more difficult to run against than Indy was, but its offence is as mistake-prone as the come.
Levis and Co. committed five turnovers through the first two weeks. I expect Green Bay (entering with a league-high six takeaways) to build on that total.
Panthers +5.5 (-122): Ladies and gents, it’s Andy Dalton time.
That might not seem like a thing to celebrate, but compared to another four quarters of Bryce Young, it really is. Through two games, Young has averaged 4.4 yards per attempt and posted a 0:3 TD-to-INT ratio. Carolina has looked lifeless with him.
Enter Dalton, who threw for 361 yards and two TDs in his lone start last season and has 163 career starts on his ledger. He’s no superstar, but he’s a big step in the right direction in terms of QB competence.
The Las Vegas Raiders inexplicably knocked off the Baltimore Ravens last week, but this is still number they haven’t made a habit of clearing. Since the start of last year, Las Vegas has failed to cover a -5.5 spread in 14 of 19 games.
Carolina was a 7-point underdog at open and the line has come down a bit since the announcement that Dalton would start. According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, underdogs of 6-plus points are 8-0 ATS this year.
NFL picks made at 2:20 p.m. on 09/18/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.