The New York Yankees exploded for 11 runs in last night’s series opener against the Seattle Mariners. I’m calling for more offence from the Bronx Bombers tonight.
The pregame narrative: Aaron Judge owns Seattle and has two very compelling props that I’m jumping on. I also like Gleyber Torres to score and Mitch Garver to record a hit.
Check out my Yankees vs. Mariners prop picks for Sept. 18.
Yankees vs. Mariners prop picks
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Best Bet: Judge over 1.5 bases (+115)
Seattle is the poorest offensive environment in the majors, according to Baseball Savant’s park factors. But that doesn’t seem to matter to Judge.
In 20 career games at Seattle’ T-Mobile Park, Judge has a .315/.441/.808 slash line and 16 extra-base hits. Most hitters would be happy to have an .808 OPS in Seattle … but that’s just Judge’s SLG when he’s batting on the banks of Puget Sound.
It’s difficult to contextualize how lethal Judge has been at the plate this year, but here’s one attempt. Look at some of the categories where Judge leads the way:
- HR (53)
- OPS (1.149)
- Total bases (367)
- Barrel rate (26.3%)
- Average exit velocity (96.0 mph)
Judge also leads the majors with a .692 SLG, but Baseball Savant grades his xSLG (.731) even higher. So you could argue he should be producing at an even greater clip than he already is.
Last night, in a tough matchup against Seattle’s Bryan Woo, Judge cashed this bet in the first inning with a two-run double. Now he’ll face Bryce Miller, who hasn’t had any fun facing Judge so far.
Judge is 3-for-6 with two homers and a double against Miller.
Key stat: Judge is averaging 2.46 bases per game this season and has gone over 1.5 bases in 78 of 149 games (52.3%).
Quick picks
Judge over 0.5 RBI (+145): This is on the lower end as far as RBI prices are concerned, but it’s still very playable for Judge.
All three of his hits against Miller went for extra bases, as mentioned, and both hitters ahead of him in the lineup have excelled against Seattle’s starter, too.
Torres and Juan Soto are collectively 4-for-8 with two extra-base hits against Miller.
Judge, who had four RBI last night, has cashed this prop in 20 of 41 games since the start of August. He also now has 24 RBI in 20 career games in Seattle.
Torres over 0.5 runs (+117): If Judge has a big night at the plate, Torres could be one of the beneficiaries.
Let’s be fair to Miller for a second. He has a 1.55 ERA and a .168 opponent BA over his past seven starts. But Torres is on fire and should get himself in position to score.
Over his past 14 games, Torres is batting .373 with 14 runs scored. He’s cashed this bet 10 times. From New York’s leadoff spot, he’s a bargain at plus money.
Garver over 0.5 hits (-120): Garver hasn’t been worth betting on very often this year, but I like his spot tonight with a platoon advantage.
The catcher is a career .263 hitter against lefties, and his OPS against southpaws this year (.792) far outweighs his OPS against righties (.537).
Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes is having a solid season, but he’s been hittable in recent weeks. Over his past 10 starts, opponents have a .265 BA and a .796 OPS.
Picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET 09/18/2024.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.