Bowden Francis is back on the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight as the team looks to even its series against the Texas Rangers.
The pregame narrative: Through four Toronto/Texas matchups this year, the home team is 4-0 … and they’ve all featured double-digit run totals. I’m bucking those trends a bit tonight by backing the road team on the first-five-inning market, along with the F5 under.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Rangers on Sept. 18.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers
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Best Bet: Blue Jays draw no bet – first five innings (+108)
My favourite Blue Jays bet at this point in the season? An F5 wager with Francis on the mound.
The right-hander’s resurgence started as soon as he was given a full-time role in the rotation on Aug. 7. From that point forward, he has some dizzyingly good numbers:
- 1.50 ERA
- .101 opponent BA
- .375 opponent OPS
- 27% K rate
- 3% BB rate
Toronto is 6-1-0 on the F5 moneyline in those outings, and it’s pretty easy to see why. Francis is consistently giving his side a chance to win.
Backing the Blue Jays to win outright on the F5 moneyline carries a more compelling price (+140), but obviously with a bit more risk.
Toronto is just 66-65-18 on the F5 moneyline this season, per ATS.io, which means it has only won outright in 44.3% of its games.
I like the plus-money upside of this pick, but I also like that it’ll grade as a push rather than a loss if the Jays can’t provide Francis with ample run support.
And in fairness, Rangers starter Cody Bradford (5-3, 3.97 ERA) has been excellent at home this season. He has a 2.57 ERA at Globe Life Field and the Rangers are 6-1-1 on the F5 moneyline in his eight home starts.
Key stat: Toronto has outscored its opponents, 14-6, in the first five innings over Francis’ past seven starts.
Quick picks
Under 4.5 runs – first five innings (-137): I’m not sure how else to spell out Francis’ recent dominance, so just know that I expect him to shove again tonight. But he’s not the only pitcher who should keep scoring down.
Bradford, as mentioned, has been great at Globe Life. Opponents have just a .174 BA and a .315 SLG against him in Arlington. Those values are both nearly doubled on the road.
It’s also worth noting that Bradford is a lefty. Toronto has just an 88 wRC+ against lefties this year, which ranks 24th in MLB.
The F5 under is 4-1 in Francis’ past five starts — and only 10 total F5 runs have been scored in that span.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases (+108): I’ve hyped up the pitching on both sides of this matchup, but let’s save room to praise Vladdy a bit, too.
Last night, he went 3-for-5 with a double and two runs in a high-scoring series opener. Even though Bradford has fared well at home, I have a tough time staying away from plus-money odds on Guerrero to clear his bases prop against a lefty.
Guerrero has a .565 SLG against lefties this year (10th in MLB), as well as a .991 OPS (eighth). He can crush against anyone, but he’s at his best in lefty-on-righty matchups.
In his past 45 games, Guerrero has gone over 1.5 bases 26 times (57.8%). He’s also 14-for-40 (.350) lifetime at Globe Life Field.
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 09/18/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.