Bryce Harper headlines today’s MLB prop bets, and there are two additional plays in the 4 p.m. window.
The pregame narrative: Harper faces a familiar pitcher today and should be able to do some serious damage. Later on, I’m fading Randy Arozarena and Cal Raleigh in a plus-money parlay while also tailing Zac Gallen’s strikeout prop.
Check out these MLB prop bets for Sept. 15.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Harper over 1.5 bases (+130)
Backing a hitter in a lefty-on-lefty matchup is typically not the move, but this one isn’t as daunting as you might think.
From the pitching side of things, Mets starter David Peterson has yielded only marginally better power results to righty hitters (.364 SLG) than to lefties (.343 SLG).
As for Harper, his OPS against lefties (.927) is actually better this year than his OPS against righties (.906). And both are stellar, obviously, which is why he was named to his eighth all-star team this summer.
Harper has already seen — and crushed — Peterson in the past, too.
The two-time MVP is 7-for-15 (.467) with a home run, a double and two walks against Peterson.
In fairness to Peterson, he’s done well to limit damage in recent outings. Since the start of August, he has a 2.39 ERA and a .315 opponent SLG. But if anyone is going to power up against him, I like my chances with Harper.
Coming off a two-homer game last night, look for Harper to stay hot in a familiar matchup.
Key stat: Harper has gone over 1.5 bases in 13 of his past 21 games, posting a .385/.455/.626 slash line in that span.
Quick picks
Parlay: Arozarena, Raleigh under 1.5 bases each (+128): I view this as a solid price to fade two players who’ve really struggled against Rangers left-hander Andrew Heaney.
Let’s start with Arozarena, whose main risk is that he tends to hit lefties better than righties. On the bright side (for us), the former Ray hasn’t been hitting anyone well lately.
Arozarena has gone under 1.5 bases in 21 of his past 29 games, batting .209 in that span. He is 1-for-7 with three strikeouts against Heaney.
Raleigh, meanwhile, is hitless in 11 at-bats against Heaney.
The catcher known by some as “Big Dumper” is also hitless in seven of his past 16 games. And although he’s a switch-hitter by trade, Raleigh’s numbers from the left side are well below league average (.156 BA, .633 OPS).
Gallen over 6.5 Ks (-106): The Milwaukee Brewers aren’t a particularly strikeout-heavy team, but this isn’t a particularly arduous strikeout line for Gallen.
The talented right-hander has gotten into a groove lately, riding a 16.1-inning scoreless streak into today’s outing. He also has gone over 6.5 Ks in four consecutive starts.
Milwaukee has the 13th-highest K rate against righties this year (23.4%). And the current lineup has struck out against Gallen at an even higher rate — 26.1% over 46 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant.
Picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 09/15/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.