Three starting pitchers are featured in today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: A play on Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Landon Knack is my favourite pick, while Freddy Peralta and Bailey Ober make up the remaining recommendations.
Check out these MLB prop bets for September 13.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Knack over 4.5 Ks (-114)
I have a hard time seeing this light line staying at this price throughout the day.
Knack has a 28.1% K rate at Triple-A Oklahoma City this season and a 24.0 K% across 11 MLB appearances (nine starts).
His strikeout numbers weren’t impressive at Triple-A last season, but he fanned more than 27% of the batters he faced in Double-A last year and 2022.
While those aren’t elite numbers, they are well above average and provide a good outlook ahead of tonight’s start versus the Atlanta Braves.
Atlanta hitters get punched out often, ranking top 10 in K rate on the season and during the second half, while fanning at the sixth-highest clip against right-handers.
Knack struck out eight batters last week against the Cleveland Guardians, a club with significantly less swing and miss than the Braves.
The 27-year-old recorded five-plus Ks in five of his eight MLB starts before that.
Key stat: Across MLB and Triple-A, Knack has topped this line in each of his last seven starts.
Quick picks
Peralta over 15.5 outs (-106): This line required a double-take despite Peralta’s pedestrian stretch.
The Milwaukee Brewers’ ace, known for his high strikeout upside, has not been missing bats.
He has a measly 18.9% K rate since the start of August, a span of seven starts in which he’s issued multiple walks each outing and has a 5.33 FIP.
Not only are the walks and lack of Ks concerning (though the latter could help keep his pitch count down), but he’ll be facing an elite offence.
The Arizona Diamondbacks rank first in MLB in wRC+ (143) in the second half, and recently returned all-star Ketel Marte.
That said, this is not a play on his K prop. Peralta has topped this line in 18 of 29 starts, including seven of his last 10.
Ober over 5.5 Ks (-137): This is an excellent price to back Ober on a 5.5 line.
The righty has a career-high K rate (26.5%) and gives the playoff-hopeful Minnesota Twins innings.
Ober has worked at least six frames in 13 of his last 14 starts, but you’re not going to find any 17.5 lines out there at a playable price. But the innings mean more opportunity to rack up Ks.
Over that 14-start stretch, Ober has cleared this 10 times. He faced two teams that are difficult to retire on strikes in his last outings, punching out seven Royals and eight Blue Jays.
The Cincinnati Reds are not like those clubs. Cincinnati ranks fifth in the majors in K rate and fourth against right-handers.
Perhaps I’d give pause if this game was being played in Cincinnati’s homer-happy park. But it’s in Minnesota where Ober has a 10.18 K/9 rate.
Picks made at 11:49 a.m. ET on 09/13/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.