After Thursday’s off-day, the Toronto Blue Jays continue their homestand with a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals.
The pregame narrative: Tonight’s pitching matchup isn’t scaring me off of taking the over on a modest game total. In the player prop market, I like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s plus-money price to score a run.
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Blue Jays picks vs. Cardinals
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Best Bet: Over 8 runs (-104)
One thing that really jumped out to me about tonight’s matchup are the home/road splits for Cardinals starter Erick Fedde since he joined his new club.
Fedde, who was shipped to St. Louis in a three-team trade at the end of July, has done a lot better within the pitcher-friendly confines of Busch Stadium than elsewhere:
| Situation | ERA | FIP | SLG |
| Home (3 starts) | 2.35 | 3.96 | .339 |
| Road (4 starts) | 5.64 | 5.86 | .494 |
These are small enough samples that Fedde could have some luck working for or against him, but it’s still a stark difference.
One way to approach that trend would be to take the over on the Blue Jays’ 3.5-run team total (-141), but that’s juiced up enough that I’d rather take a stab at the game total instead. Plus, I think either of tonight’s starting pitchers is capable of coughing up at least a handful of runs.
Kevin Gausman wasn’t officially announced as Toronto’s starter at the time of this writing, but he is next in line to pitch (make sure to monitor any news on that front ahead of game time). Here’s how both teams’ respective lineups have performed against Fedde and Gausman:
- TOR vs. Fedde: 6-for-25 (.240), .480 SLG, 9.7% K rate
- STL vs. Gausman: 16-for-51 (.314), .490 SLG, 14.3% K rate
Again, fairly modest samples we’re working with. But the K rates tell a story that neither pitcher has baffled these lineups in the past.
The over is 41-29-2 (58.6%) in Toronto’s home games this year, which is the sixth-highest home overs rate in baseball, per Team Rankings. Knowing that, I’ll ride with the over again tonight.
Key stat: Kevin Gausman has a 4.09 ERA over his past 14 starts, and this over is 9-4-1 in those outings.
Quick pick
Guerrero over 0.5 runs (+110): Vladdy’s run prop is priced better than his bases prop. And I think it’s a better bet, too.
Fedde has issued multiple walks in 10 of his past 11 starts and has a 3.7 BB/9 in that span. Over a full season, that would be the second-highest among qualified MLB pitchers.
Vladdy is an ultra-dangerous slugger who also has a strong sense of the strike zone and rarely goes down swinging. He’s exactly the type of guy Fedde should be looking to pitch around.
In fact, we’ve seen that already. Guerrero is 2-for-7 with three walks against Fedde.
With that in mind, I’m not as bullish to bet the over on 1.5 bases for Guerrero. But I do expect him to find a way on base, after which he’ll have a solid chance to score.
Guerrero has scored in 29 of his past 49 games (59.2%) and has posted a .463 on-base percentage in that span.
Picks made at 2:30 p.m. on 09/13/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.