Another loaded college football Saturday is on tap this week, and I’m targeting picks from a couple of games featuring ranked squads.
The pregame narrative: No. 6 Missouri hosts No. 24 Boston College, and I’m banking on a breakout game from star wideout Luther Burden. Elsewhere, I think Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah can clear a very modest passing yards total against No. 15 Oklahoma.
Check out the best college football Week 3 picks for the action on Sept. 14.
College football Week 3 picks
Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| NCAAF Week 3 picks | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Mensah over 195.5 pass yards | -113 | Add to betslip |
| Burden over 69.5 rec. yards | -117 | Add to betslip |
| Colorado State +7.5 | -120 | Add to betslip |
Go to full college football betting markets.
Best Bet: Mensah over 195.5 passing yards (-113)
You might not know who Mensah is, but know this: He’s off to an elite start as a collegiate passer.
The redshirt freshman leads all Division-I quarterbacks in completion rate (70.7%), air yards per attempt (14.2) and yards per completion (18.9).
It’s only been two games, so let’s not give this guy the Heisman or anything. But with numbers like that, I feel good about his chances of clearing such a modest yardage total.
Especially in a matchup where he’s going to have to throw.
Tulane is a 12-point road underdog against Oklahoma, and that means the Green Wave should be in a pass-heavy game script. Also, the Sooners have put up a wall against opposing running backs so far this year, allowing just 1.8 yards per rush, so I’m not confident Tulane could get much going on the ground anyway.
If Jackson Arnold and the Sooners get their offence cooking earlier, Mensah should be encouraged to air it out. He almost authored an upset over No. 14 Kansas State last week, so we’ve already seen him perform well against a reputable program.
Key stat: Mensah has cashed this prop in both games so far, including a 354-yard performance against Kansas State on Sept. 7.
Quick picks
Burden over 69.5 receiving yards (-117): Missouri wasn’t pushed in either of its first two games, winning by a collective score of 89-0. I expect Boston College to put up a fight, though, which means Burden will need to be involved for the Tigers.
Burden, who will be playing on Sundays next fall, is off to a really slow start. He only has seven catches for 64 yards through two games — though he did leave early last week due to illness.
Looking back at last season, though, it’s clear what Burden can do when Missouri calls his number.
As a sophomore, he had 1,212 receiving yards (92.3 yards/game) and cleared the 95-yard mark eight times. He’s probable to play on Saturday, so I’m not expecting his previous illness to be any sort of factor.
BC has only allowed 1.6 yards per rush so far, which means the Mizzou offence — led by Burden and quarterback Brady Cook — should have the green light to let it fly through the air.
Colorado State +7.5 (-120): Last year, the in-state rivalry between Colorado and Colorado State was one of the best early-season matchups in the country.
But it was also the final highlight of Colorado’s season.
The Buffaloes won that game, 43-35 (OT) to move to 3-0 on the season. The Deion Sanders hype reached new highs but promptly fell to earth as the team went 1-8 from that point forward.
In 14 games under Sanders, Colorado has only covered this spread twice.
Colorado State doesn’t have to deal with the type of nationally-reported toxicity that’s seeping into Colorado’s program right now. The Rams have covered a +7.5 spread in eight of their past 12 games.
NCAA made at 2:50 p.m. on 09/12/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.