The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees open a four-game set tonight at Yankee Stadium.
The pregame narrative: I’m fading Juan Soto tonight as the riskiest of my three plus-money prop bets in this matchup. On Boston’s side of things, I like Jarren Duran and Rob Refsnyder to do some damage.
Check out my Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks for Sept. 12.
Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks
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Best Bet: Duran over 0.5 runs (+115)
Why is Duran, who has 102 runs this season, getting such a juicy price to score for Boston from the leadoff spot tonight?
Well, he’s a lefty hitter who struggles against lefty pitching. And southpaw Nestor Cortes is typically at his best in left-on-left matchups.
But this price is good enough to catch my interest. And upon taking a closer look, I think there’s some real value.
Duran has scored in 76 of 144 games this year (52.8%), and he really turned up the heat in June to land his first all-star bid.
From June 1 onward, Duran has scored in 50 of 86 games (58.1%) with a .310/.362/.560 slash line. He’s also an above-average hitter against LHPs in that span, posting a .283 BA and a 107 wRC+.
All of a sudden, that platoon disadvantage doesn’t look so bleak, does it?
If Cortes was cruising in the run-up to this start, I might be a bit hesitant. But he’s been all over the map.
In his past 10 outings, Cortes has a 5.16 ERA and an .803 opponent OPS. He’s had three shutout performances in that span, but also four games with five-plus runs allowed.
Boston’s lineup has hit Cortes well, so if Duran can find a way on base, there should be someone capable of driving him home.
Key stat: The Red Sox are 25-for-79 (.316) with a .595 SLG against Cortes.
Quick picks
Refsnyder over 1.5 bases (+155): Refsnyder isn’t an everyday player, but he should absolutely be in the lineup tonight — and he should crush.
The journeyman outfielder is a menace against lefty pitching, especially over the past few years. Since 2022, he owns a .317/.412/.502 slash line and a 153 wRC+ against LHPs.
And it just so happens that Refsnyder has been a menace in this particular matchup. He’s 8-for-16 with three doubles against Nestor Cortes.
When he’s in the lineup, Refsnyder usually bats No. 3 for Boston. He should have plenty of chances to clear this total tonight.
Soto under 0.5 hits (+180): Soto is one of the best hitters in the game, but he’s arguably even better at drawing a walk.
Soto’s 18.0% walk rate is second behind only Aaron Judge in the majors. He’s led the majors in walks in three consecutive seasons and is only two off Judge’s league-best pace this year.
It’s never going to be a comfortable feeling betting on Soto to go hitless. But he’s done so in 12 of his past 24 games and is batting just .200 in that span.
With a particularly keen eye, Soto could easily find his way on once or twice without even lifting the bat off his shoulder.
Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 09/12/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.