Kumar Rocker makes his MLB debut tonight when the Texas Rangers take on the Seattle Mariners.
The pregame narrative: Rocker was a standout pitcher at Vanderbilt and will get his first taste of the big leagues tonight. I think he’ll have a solid debut but I am targeting Seattle’s starter, Bryce Miller, in a plus-money parlay.
Check out my Rangers vs. Mariners prop picks for Sept. 12.
Rangers vs. Mariners prop picks
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Best Bet: Miller over 17.5 outs + Robles to record a hit (+150)
Miller’s numbers against Texas’ lineup (in 39 plate appearances) don’t look pretty:
- .314 opponent BA
- .514 opponent SLG
- 17.9% K rate
But I’m not worried about that. The two guys who have done damage against him are Adolis Garcia (2-for-6, one double, one HR) and Jonah Heim (3-for-6, three singles). Both are in awful slumps. Garcia is batting .189 in September and Heim is hitless in his last seven games.
Miller has been one of baseball’s best pitchers lately, posting a 2.01 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP in his last 10 starts.
He’s not an elite swing-and-miss guy — Miller owns a 56th percentile K rate on Baseball Savant — but pitchers don’t have to rack up whiffs to do damage against the Rangers.
Texas has the fifth-worst wRC+ (88) and seventh-lowest batting average (.233) since the all-star break.
Miller has gone over this line in seven of his last 10 starts, which explains why the bet carries -175 odds.
That’s why I’m adding Victor Robles over 0.5 hits to push this play into plus money.
Robles has seven multi-hit games in his last 11 (.460 BA) and owns a .308/.377/.451 slash line against righties this year.
Key stat: Miller has a 2.03 ERA at home this year.
Quick picks
Polanco under over 0.5 hits (-110): Let’s talk about Rocker for a minute.
The fireballing righty was one of the most coveted prospects in baseball but had his career briefly de-railed due to a shoulder injury. The Mets originally drafted him in 2021 and then declined to sign him after a medical issue.
Rocker re-entered the draft in 2022 and was taken third overall by the Rangers. He’s been buzzing in the minors ever since.
He has a 0.91 ERA in seven starts since being moved to Triple-A and struck out 26 batters in his last three starts.
Polanco is in the mud right now, batting .138 in August. He also has a paltry .195 batting average against righties this year. I expect him to have another bad night.
Picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET 09/12/2024.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.