A key matchup in the AFC East unfolds in prime time tonight as the Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills.
The pregame narrative: Josh Allen has torched the Dolphins in recent years, and after a relatively quiet showing in Week 1, I think he’s due for a great game tonight. I’m also targeting Dalton Kincaid in a bounce-back spot and looking for Jaylen Waddle to remain a steady contributor for the home team.
Check out our Bills vs. Dolphins predictions for the Thursday Night Football matchup on Sept. 12.
Bills vs. Dolphins SGP predictions
Go to full NFL betting markets.
Parlay: Allen over 219.5 pass yards + Waddle over 49.5 receiving yards + Kincaid over 3.5 receptions + Under 54.5 points (+370)
Allen over 219.5 pass yards (-235): On limited usage, Allen put up some nice numbers in Week 1. He threw for 232 yards on just 23 pass attempts, which equates to 10.1 yards/attempt and led to an impressive 137.7 passer rating.
That type of efficiency won’t come every game, but Allen is usually reliable for a greater pass volume than that. Last season, he averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game.
Allen also has fantastic recent numbers against the Dolphins, throwing for 300-plus yards in all five matchups against them since 2022.
SGP legs
Kincaid over 3.5 receptions (-220): Kincaid was under-utilized in Week 1, catching just one of two targets for 11 yards. But Allen’s uncharacteristically low pass volume was obviously a factor for that.
And though the target count was low for Kincaid last week, the snap count was not. He was on the field for 84% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps, which was more than any other pass-catcher.
It’d make sense for Miami’s defence to key on Kincaid the way the Arizona Cardinals did. But Buffalo needs to get its top receiving option rolling, and that wasn’t an issue last year in this matchup.
Kincaid hauled in four-plus catches in 11 of 13 starts last year, as well as both games against Miami.
Waddle over 49.5 rec. yards (-245): Bettors had the full Waddle experience in Week 1. An injury tent visit, a questionable designation and some really flashy plays.
Despite an early concussion scare, Waddle re-entered Miami’s game and went for 105 yards on five receptions. His 72% snap share was higher than any other receiver or tailback for Miami.
Waddle hasn’t made a Pro Bowl yet, but he’s been steadily productive through his first three years in the NFL. He’s a three-time 1,000-yard receiver who has cashed this bet in 34 of 48 regular season games.
With Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane questionable, the Dolphins should look to manufacture additional touches for Waddle after a strong season opener.
Under 54.5 points (-235): Rooting for offence is always the most fun option, and you can still do that while taking this teased-up under.
Did you know that the Bills and Dolphins have scored 40 or fewer total points in each of their past three matchups in South Florida?
Buffalo also went under this total in seven of eight road games last year, with those games averaging 45.4 total points.
Some skill position injuries on Miami’s side give me some pause, but this is primarily about the Bills and Dolphins failing to come anywhere near this mark in recent matchups at Hard Rock Stadium.
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 09/12/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.