Underdogs only went 3-13 in NFL Week 1, but our Avery Perri nabbed one of them (Steelers) in last week’s edition of NFL underdog picks. Now it’s my turn.
The pregame narrative: The Green Bay Packers are in a tough spot after Jordan Love went down with a knee injury, but there are some compelling reasons why they can win at home against the Indianapolis Colts. Additionally, I don’t understand why the Los Angeles Rams are getting points against the Arizona Cardinals, but I’ll gladly tail L.A.
Check out how these NFL Week 2 underdog picks.
NFL Week 2 underdog picks
Go to full NFL Week 2 betting markets.
Best bet: Packers moneyline (+147)
Let’s be clear … this pick is not about hyping up Malik Willis, a guy who failed to beat out Mason Rudolph for the Tennessee Titans’ backup job in camp.
I’m putting my faith in Green Bay coach Matt Lafleur, who has two extra days to coordinate an offensive game plan that focuses on a run-heavy approach and makes life (relatively) easy on the newcomer at quarterback.
Last week, the Houston Texans ran the ball 40 times and steamrolled the Colts’ defensive front. Running it that many times is certainly a choice when reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud is under centre, but the decision paid off.
Houston rushed for 213 yards (5.3/carry) despite only breaking five tackles. More than half their rush yards (116) came before contact.
Indianapolis allowed Houston’s run game to operate with a 52.8% success rate, per rbsdm.com. A run is deemed “successful” when it achieves one of these milestones:
- At least 40% of yards-to-gain on first down
- At least 60% of yards-to-gain on second down
- 100% or more of yards-to-gain on third/fourth down.
How does this relate to Green Bay?
Well, the Packers also had a high run success rate in the opening week (45.8%, eighth in the NFL), and their offensive line has a higher grade than Houston’s on Pro Football Focus (14th versus 22nd).
Green Bay churned for 7.8 yards per carry on 21 attempts in Week 1 against a beefed-up Philadelphia Eagles front. I think Josh Jacobs and Co. can shoulder the bulk of the offensive workload as Willis works to get his bearings in Green Bay.
Remember, Willis was only traded to the Packers on Aug. 26. Every week, every day and every rep matters.
Key stat: Green Bay is 5-1 straight up as a home underdog since 2021, per Team Rankings.
Week 2 upset predictions
Rams moneyline (-104): This is barely an underdog pick, but the Rams do technically have the longer odds as the visiting team against the Cardinals.
Los Angeles has a habit of losing to the great teams and beating the not-so-great ones. Last year, six of their seven losses came against playoff squads (the other was a three-point loss at Cincinnati before Joe Burrow’s injury).
And if the overtime coin flip had gone the other way on Sunday Night Football, L.A. might’ve upset an ultra-talented Detroit squad on the road last week.
The Rams are 3-0 in Arizona with Matthew Stafford, who I think will author another victory on Sunday.
Picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 09/10/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.