Two Japanese star pitchers will be on the mound in Los Angeles tonight as Shota Imanaga battles Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
The pregame narrative: Yamamoto makes his first start for the Los Angeles Dodgers since mid-June and looks like a great fade candidate on his strikeouts prop. On a brighter note, I’ve got plus-money plays on Mookie Betts and Chicago Cubs starter Shota Imanaga.
Check out my Cubs vs. Dodgers prop picks for Sept. 10.
Cubs vs. Dodgers prop picks
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Best Bet: Betts over 1.5 bases (+102)
I was debating between Betts to score a run (-110) and this total bases prop, but I’m going with the bases for a couple of reasons.
First off, the price is slightly better for his bases prop. If you like two picks, it makes sense to lean in on the one with a better payout potential, right?
Another key reason is that Betts can cash this wager on his own without any assistance. And I’m not sure how much assistance his teammates will provide against the talented Imanaga.
The first-year Cub, who led his Japanese league in strikeouts a year ago, has a 2.68 ERA and a .158 opponent batting average over his past six outings.
He also tossed four scoreless innings against the Dodgers early this year. Oh, and he had seven no-hit innings in his most recent start.
So what makes me think Betts can break through?
The six-time Silver Slugger has been on a rampage over his past 15 games, posting a .352/.422/.741 slash line in that span. And he’s gone over 1.5 bases 10 times — including six of his past seven.
Although Imanaga is a tough guy to beat, he’s an interesting matchup for bases props because he has one of the lowest walk rates in the majors (4.1%, 97th percentile). Free passes ruin bases props, so I view that as a plus.
Key stat: Since 2022, Betts has a .603 SLG and a 173 wRC+ against lefties.
Quick picks
Yamamoto under 4.5 Ks (-120): This is a line Yamamoto has cleared in 12 of 14 starts this season, but I’m feeling good about the under tonight.
Why? Because it’s Yamamoto’s first MLB start in nearly three months after hitting the injured list with triceps tightness. I simply don’t expect his workload to be substantial enough to pile up strikeouts.
Yamamoto made a pair of rehab starts with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Aug. 28 and Sept. 3. He tossed 31 and 53 pitches, respectively, in those outings while striking out a total of five batters.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said the plan for Yamamoto is to throw between 50 and 60 pitches tonight.
With a normal workload, Yamamoto’s line wouldn’t be this low. Still, against a Cubs team with the fifth-lowest K rate over the past month (20.4%), I think the under is the play.
Imanaga over 5.5 Ks (+138): The Dodgers aren’t a high-strikeout team, but I’m looking to ride the wave with Imanaga.
He’s cashed the over on this strikeout line in eight of his past 11 starts, as well as 17 of 26 on the season.
Way back in April, he had three Ks over four efficient innings (43 pitches) against L.A. With a heartier pitch count tonight, his strikeout ceiling will be much higher.
As mentioned with my Betts pick, Imanaga is exceptionally stingy when it comes to walks. That helps keep his pitch count down and it means he’s willing to attack hitters.
Picks made at 2:50 p.m. ET 09/10/2024.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.