Tonight’s Chicago Cubs versus Los Angeles Dodgers matchup could be a prop bettors’ dream. The 10-run projected total is the highest of Monday’s slate.
The pregame narrative: Both starting pitchers in this matchup have been brutal lately, making it easy to find some enticing hitter prop options on both sides. I like Ian Happ on the Cubs’ side and I’m backing Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Will Smith for the Dodgers.
Check out my Cubs vs. Dodgers prop picks for Sept. 9.
Cubs vs. Dodgers prop picks
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Best Bet: Happ over 1.5 bases (+132)
The Cubs are 11-5 in their past 16 games, and a major uptick in production from Happ in that span helps explain why.
Happ has a .343/.397/.537 slash line in those 16 games, cashing the over on his bases prop 11 times. Nearly half of his 23 hits during this run went for extra bases (eight doubles, one triple, one home run).
One risk with Happ is that he owns a 12.4% walk rate, which ranks in the 94th percentile in the majors. Walks don’t contribute to his bases total, so that’s not what I’m hoping to see tonight.
On the bright side, Happ only has one walk in his past nine games (38 plate appearances). His recent production suggests that he has no hesitation taking the bat off his shoulder.
With a boatload of recent extra-base hits, I know Happ is capable of clearing this total with one swing. And Dodgers starter Walker Buehler is capable of serving up a meatball to help him do it.
On the season, Buehler has allowed a .900 OPS to opposing hitters over 12 starts. He went on the injured list in June, but his four post-IL starts have been no better: .913 OPS on 21 hits in 17.0 innings.
Key stat: Buehler has allowed multiple extra-base hits in five consecutive starts.
Quick picks
Parlay: Freeman, Betts 1+ runs each (+155): You can back either of these runs props individually, but I like the thought of taking a bigger swing and pairing them.
Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has tons of history against this loaded Dodgers lineup, and the head-to-head matchup has mostly gone L.A.’s way. The Dodgers have a .295 BA and .482 SLG against Hendricks with just a 12.4% K rate.
Freeman has reached base in nine of 18 plate appearances against Hendricks and has scored a run in 35 of 72 games since the start of June.
Betts, meanwhile, has been excellent since returning from the IL last month. He has scored in 14 of 24 starts in that span while posting a .964 OPS
This isn’t just about Betts and Freeman reaching base, though. L.A.’s heart-of-the-order hitters, Smith and Teoscar Hernandez, are a collective 4-for-5 with a double against Hendricks.
Smith over 0.5 RBI (+148): If someone is going to bring home Freeman and Betts, I think Smith is the perfect man for the job.
The catcher has 13 RBI in 23 games after moving out of the No. 2 spot in the order. He’s been batting in the Nos. 4-6 spots since then, which really heightens his RBI opportunities.
In his past 23 games, Smith has 25 plate appearances with runners in scoring position (34 total PAs with runners on base). He only has a .623 OPS since the start of August, but he’s facing a struggling pitcher and I’m hunting for opportunities.
Picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET 09/09/2024.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.