The San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets wrap up Week 1 in the Bay Area.
The pregame narrative: The Niners have been borderline untouchable at Levi’s Stadium the past few seasons and I expect them to cover an alternate spread with help from Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. On the other side, look for Breece Hall to be involved in the receiving game.
Check out our Jets vs. 49ers predictions for Monday Night Football on Sept. 9.
Jets vs. 49ers SGP predictions
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Parlay: 49ers -2.5 + McCaffrey anytime TD + Samuel over 39.5 receiving yards + Hall over 24.5 receiving yards (+510)
49ers -2.5 (-155): There has been plenty of offseason hype behind the Jets but I believe these teams are on different levels.
Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played meaningful football in 18 months and is tasked with beating one of the league’s best defences on the road. Even if he was fully up to game speed — which he’s not — that’s a lot to ask.
The 49ers were the class of the NFC last year, posting a 12-5 record en route to securing the conference’s top seed.
They went 7-3 at home in the regular season and playoffs, covering this line in each of those victories. And one of those losses was in Week 18 to the Los Angeles Rams when San Fran rested all of its starters.
Sure, New York’s defence is elite, but San Francisco’s offence was by far the most efficient in 2023.
Its +0.179 offensive EPA per play was the best in the NFL — 0.058 more than the Dallas Cowboys. That’s the same gap between Dallas and the No. 7 ranked Philadelphia Eagles, per RBSDM.com.
McCaffrey, Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk didn’t get full training camps but neither did Rodgers. I’ll gladly back the home side tonight.
Other SGP legs
McCaffrey anytime TD (-200): This pick doesn’t need much selling. After all, McCaffrey found the end zone an NFL-best 21 times last season.
He had a 17-game touchdown streak spanning from the 2022 season through Week 9 and got right back on the horse by scoring in eight of his next 10 games after it got snapped.
CMC had the most red zone touches (65) and targets (17) of any running back in the NFL.
He’s got a nose for the end zone and will be utilized when San Francisco gets into scoring position.
Samuel over 39.5 receiving yards (-159): I backed Samuel to clear his 61.5 rushing/receiving yard total as my best prop bet for tonight and will go back to the well.
If we exclude a game against the Cleveland Browns where Samuel left in the first quarter with an injury, he averaged 63.7 receiving yards in 14 games, clearing this total 10 times.
He has game-breaking speed and is one of the toughest players to tackle in the open field, as indicated by his 8.78 average yards after catch.
Hall over 24.5 receiving yards (-180): Finally, let’s turn to a Jet to wrap up this parlay.
I think Rodgers is going to be pressured all night long and that should result in plenty of dump-offs. The 49ers allowed the third-most completions (410) but the 14th-fewest passing yards per game (214.2) in 2023.
Hall is a dynamic receiving tailback with sure hands who can get loose and run.
I expect him to go over this line as he did nine times last season.
Picks made at 10:30 a.m. on 09/09/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.