Back at home tonight, the Toronto Blue Jays host the white-hot New York Mets at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: The Mets have won nine of their past 10 games to move into a tie for an NL wild-card spot. But their starter tonight is shaky, which has me backing Spencer Horwitz and George Springer on the prop market.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Mets on Sept. 9.
Blue Jays picks vs. Mets
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Best Bet: Horwitz over 1.5 bases (+160)
Against lefty pitching, Horwitz has been borderline unplayable this season. But against righties, he’s putting up all-star-calibre numbers:
- vs. LHPs (59 plate appearances): .170/.237/.208 slash line, .038 ISO
- vs. RHPs (252 plate appearances): .300/.389/.530 slash line, .230 ISO
The batting averages are quite different, but what really jumps out are the SLG and ISO discrepancies. All 12 of Horwitz’s home runs — and 26 of his 28 extra-base hits — have come against right-handers.
Power potential is what matters for bases props. I want the opportunity for a player to cash the ticket with one swing (otherwise you might as well bet over 1.5 hits at much longer odds).
Horwitz hit a low point production-wise in mid-August, but he’s turned things around over the past few weeks. He’s gone over 1.5 bases in nine of his past 18 games while posting a 1.157 OPS in that span.
Yesterday, the second baseman came off the bench to go 2-for-2 with a home run. On Saturday, he went 4-for-5 with a double and two home runs.
Now Horwitz faces Tylor Megill, a pitcher who’s been hit pretty hard this season. Megill allows hard contact (i.e., 95-plus mph exit velocity) on 43.6% of balls in play, which ranks in the 12th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
Over his past six outings, Megill has allowed a .505 SLG to opposing hitters and 19 runs in 25.2 innings.
At a nice price, this looks like a worthwhile matchup to back Horwitz in.
Key stat: Lefty hitters have an .806 OPS against Megill this season, which is a 139-point jump compared to righty hitters.
Quick pick
Springer over 0.5 runs (-103): Springer has been pretty good lately, and I like the Blue Jays’ chances to do a bit of damage against Megill.
With that in mind, this near-even-money price is good enough for me to back Toronto’s leadoff man.
Springer has a pair of three-hit games already this month, including a 3-for-5 performance with a double and a hit by pitch yesterday. He has 10 runs and an .810 OPS over his past 15 games.
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 09/09/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.