Let’s go with a variety pack for NFL Week 1 TD picks: One running back, one receiver and one tight end.
The pregame narrative: How will Gus Edwards navigate an uncertain backfield in his Chargers debut? I think he’ll show he belongs as the goal-line back. Elsewhere, Michael Pittman and Jake Ferguson both look like solid plays to hit paydirt.
Check out the best NFL Week 1 prop bets for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 1 prop bets
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Best bet: Edwards anytime TD (+170)
I recently backed Edwards’ teammate, J.K. Dobbins, to clear his 32.5-yard rushing prop on Sunday. But there’s no reason why Edwards can’t play a key role, too.
After an injury-plagued 2022 campaign, Edwards was back in the mix for all 17 games with the Baltimore Ravens last season. And he was a beast near the goal line.
Edwards led the NFL with 23 carries inside the five-yard line last season and turned that into 12 touchdowns.
Coming off that kind of volume, why is Edwards fetching such a juicy price to score in Week 1?
Well, he’s one of four new running backs on the Chargers. And each of the backs has a connection to the current regime:
- Edwards and J.K. Dobbins both played under Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman in Baltimore
- Kimani Vidal was drafted this year by L.A.’s new general manager Joe Horitz and head coach Jim Harbaugh
- Hassan Haskins, signed recently as a free agent, played under Harbaugh at Michigan from 2018-21
So it’s a bit murky, but Edwards is listed atop the depth chart and I think he belongs there. Plus, the Chargers look like a team poised to run the ball a lot this year — and not just because Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are gone.
Under Harbaugh, Michigan ran the ball more than 60% of the time last season en route to winning the college football national championship.
Edwards has demonstrated an ability to perform near the goal line, and I like his chances of bringing that production to his new team.
Key stat: Edwards and the Chargers face the Raiders on Sunday. Last year, Las Vegas allowed the 10th-highest rush success rate, per rbsdm.com.
Quick picks
Pittman anytime TD (+150): We all saw how dangerous Anthony Richardson was with his legs during a limited sample in his rookie season. Assuming the Texans key on the dual-threat QB, Pittman should have some nice opportunities to find the end zone through the air.
Here’s what Pittman’s target allotment looked like in Richardson’s four starts last year: 11 (two red zone), 12, five (one RZ), seven (one RZ). He also ran 100% of the Colts’ routes in each of those games.
Pittman was one of nine players to see 20-plus red zone targets last year … but he only turned that into two RZ touchdowns. If the volume is there — and I believe it will be — look for Indy’s WR1 to see some positive regression.
Ferguson anytime TD (+188): The Browns’ defence is a tough one to crack, but Ferguson has as good a chance as anyone on the Cowboys to find the end zone.
I’m not sold on an Ezekiel Elliot/Rico Dowdle backfield … are you? If the Cowboys cozy up near the goal line, Ferguson should be their go-to guy.
After all, it worked out pretty well last year. The 2022 draftee hauled in five scores as part of a 71-catch Pro Bowl season.
According to Fantasy Pros, Ferguson led all players in targets inside the five-yard line (nine). And he saw at least one red zone target in 13 of 19 games.
Picks made at 3:05 p.m. ET on 09/06/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.