After a light Thursday, we’re back to a loaded MLB slate on Friday.
The pregame narrative: I like two Colorado Rockies on the prop market and I have additional plays on stars Zack Wheeler and Shohei Ohtani.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 6.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Brenton Doyle over 0.5 hits (-132)
You’d be forgiven when looking at today’s Rockies prop lines if you came away thinking they’re facing Cy Young.
The prices are astronomical, creating tremendous value in a matchup against Frankie Montas and the Milwaukee Brewers.
Colorado is last in the National League (and only ahead of the White Sox) in wRC+ in the second half and Montas had a solid August, posting a 3.82 ERA in six starts with his new team.
But this is still Frankie Montas, who carries a 4.70 ERA and 1.39 WHIP into tonight’s start. His expected ERA is the same and he has lacklustre strikeout and walk numbers.
While Montas is certainly capable of a good start against the Rockies, he’s allowed three-plus runs in eight of his last nine outings.
I’m targeting multiple Rockies against him at these prices.
Brenton Doyle is priced at +215 to go over 1.5 total bases. While I think that’s worthy of a play, my official recommendation is Doyle to record a hit at -132.
Doyle has at least one hit in 18 of his last 20 games.
I also think it’s worth backing Charlie Blackmon, who should hit leadoff and will have the platoon advantage for as long as Montas is on the mound.
Blackmon has been abysmal of late but he has some capable hitters behind him and an optimal spot in the lineup.
Left-handed batters have hit Montas well this year (.278/.370/.480) and Blackmon can be had at +175 to score.
Key stat: Doyle is batting .296 with a .955 OPS since July 1.
Quick picks
Wheeler over 18.5 outs (-118): I don’t typically take the over on this line and when I do it’s usually a plus-money play. But nothing is absolute and this is an excellent matchup for Wheeler.
The Philadelphia Phillies ace faces the Miami Marlins, who have lost 16 of their last 25 games and have an 88 wRC+ versus righties (which Wheeler is, and an elite one).
Wheeler is nearly automatic for six innings a game, doing so in 10 of his last 12 starts. Six frames wouldn’t cash this for us, but it demonstrates the workhorse’s ability to go deep.
Over that 12-start stretch, Wheeler has cleared this line five times. He’s top 10 in the majors in innings pitched.
Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (+108): This is priced like this because Ohtani is facing a lefty and will not have the platoon advantage early on, which he routinely exploits.
The NL MVP favourite has 1.100 OPS versus RHPs compared to a mark of .786 against LHPs. That’s a drastic difference and generally falls in line with his career splits.
But tonight’s lefty starter for the Cleveland Guardians is Matthew Boyd. He’s been solid in four starts but is not someone I’m shying away from.
Getting Ohtani at plus money versus a non-elite arm is a no-brainer, especially when he may very well see right-handed relievers later in the game.
Picks made at 1:31 p.m. ET on 09/06/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.