Two semifinal matches take place at the US Open on Friday.
The pregame narrative: Jack Draper has been one of the best at the tournament and I expect him to give Jannik Sinner his toughest match yet. In the later semifinal, I’m betting on Taylor Fritz to win dominantly over Frances Tiafoe.
Check out my top US Open men’s semifinal picks.
US Open men’s semifinal picks
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Best Bet: Sinner vs. Draper over 35.5 games (-118)
I believe these two have been the best players at the US Open so far.
Sinner has been doing Sinner things, winning all but two sets on the path to the semifinal. His 28-2 record on the outdoor hard courts is outrageous and he’s deservedly the big favourite in this one.
But Draper has been phenomenal in his own right, striking down four of five opponents in straight sets. A good way to see how good the Englishman has been is by looking at his time on court at the US Open.
His 9:14 of playing time is much lower than the average of 12:45 the other three competitors have spent on the court. That includes Sinner, who’s played 11:17.
The 22-year-old should have more than enough legs left to make the world’s No. 1 player work for this win. Draper has held 59-of-62 break points (95.2%) at the US Open, so I don’t see his serve getting broken easily.
To hit the over on this games total, four sets should do the trick.
Key stat: These two have played 26 games against each other and split them almost evenly at 14-12.
Other picks
Fritz -1.5 sets (-143): This wager is mostly backed by the recent history between these two players.
Fritz has taken six straight matches off Tiafoe since losing their first career meeting. Five of those victories came on outdoor hard courts.
In 18 total sets played against one another, Fritz has won 14. He’s simply dominated this matchup.
I’m also going to go back to the fatigue argument for this bet. Tiafoe has logged more hours on court than anyone else left at this tournament (15:01).
Compare that to Fritz’s 12:09 of playing time and it’s easy to think he will have the cardio advantage at this point.
Picks made at 1:16 p.m. on 09/06/24
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.