It’s a light Thursday with no games starting past 8:40 p.m. ET, but we’re still serving up MLB prop picks.
The pregame narrative: I like a pair of San Diego Padres tonight (Martin Perez and Jackson Merrill) and have an earlier play on Colorado Rockies left-hander Austin Gomber.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 5.
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Best bet: Perez over 15.5 outs (-124)
This isn’t really an endorsement of Perez, who has failed to top this line in three consecutive starts.
But to his credit, he’s allowed three runs or fewer in five of six outings since joining the Padres, leading to a respectable 3.41 ERA with his new club (his 5.33 FIP does paint a clearer picture, though).
Perez doesn’t miss many bats, so he gets hit often, increasing his chances of surrendering damage. He’s allowed a home run in every start with the Padres and runs into a Detroit Tigers team that’s playing well.
That all screams fade. But San Diego’s bullpen had to work overtime last night, which should give Perez some added length.
Yu Darvish made his return from the restricted list and lasted 2.2 innings, forcing the Padres to use seven relievers yesterday in a game that went to extra innings.
While the team was off Tuesday, it did play 18 straight before that and begins a new series tomorrow.
It doesn’t hurt that San Diego’s offence gets an appealing matchup against righty Casey Mize, who has made one start in the past two months. He doesn’t miss bats and faces a team that doesn’t get punched out (lowest K rate in MLB).
The Padres should put the ball in play and building an early lead could work in Perez’s favour, helping him stay out a bit longer.
Key stat: Perez cleared this line in each of his first three starts with San Diego.
Quick picks
Merrill over 1.5 bases (+118): I love this price for the National League Rookie of the Year favourite.
Merrill has been mashing and does nearly all his damage against right-handed pitching.
The 21-year-old is hitting .319 and slugging .556 versus RHPs (.907 OPS) with 17 of his 22 homers.
He’s been the Padres’ best hitter in the second half, posting a robust .329/.357/.645 slash line and ranking top 10 in MLB in wRC+ (173).
Merrill has topped this line in eight of his last 10 games.
Gomber over 15.5 outs (-103): The Rockies generally let Gomber work and things are set up fairly well for him tonight.
The last time the Rockies got more than five innings from a starter was Gomber’s last turn through the rotation. That’s a lot of work on the bullpen.
Gomber is 8-3 vs. this line since the start of July and has cleared it in 17 of his 26 starts this season. That’s despite his 4.69 ERA, so bad starts have not necessarily translated to short outings.
The matchup against the Atlanta Braves (eighth in wRC+ versus LHPs) does him no favours, but Gomber is coming off his best month since May.
Picks made at 2:01 p.m. ET on 09/05/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.