Two teams with Super Bowl aspirations meet for the NFL’s first-ever game in Brazil.
The pregame narrative: The Green Bay Packers ended last season on a tear thanks to stellar quarterback play from Jordan Love. The Philadelphia Eagles cratered in large part because of an awful defence. I expect Love to have a night and am backing Saquon Barkley Smith to clear his rushing total.
Check out my Packers vs. Eagles prop picks for Sept. 6.
Packers vs. Eagles prop picks
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Best Bet: Love over 256.5 passing yards (-115)
So how good was Love coming down the stretch? Take a look at his numbers over Green Bay’s final eight regular season games:
- 268.8 yards/game
- 70.25% completion rate
- 18 TDs, one INT
- 112.7 passer rating
That’s not just good, that’s prime Aaron Rodgers stuff. Maybe now it makes sense that the Packers drafted Love as Rodgers’ heir apparent.
Anyhow, he cleared this line in five of those eight games while landing on exactly 256 yards in one of the outliers (a 33-10 win over the Minnesota Vikings).
The Eagles’ secondary allowed the second-most passing yards per game last season and had the fifth-worst defensive dropback EPA per play (0.094, per RBSDM).
Most of that unit returns, albeit with a new defensive coordinator. The floor was so low that I expect some improvement from Philly but this still should be a more-than-manageable line for Love who has Green Bay’s entire arsenal at his disposal.
Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave both missed significant time down the stretch in 2023. They’ll be suiting up on Friday alongside Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed and I expect that group to give the Eagles secondary fits.
Key stat: Love had the second-best EPA per play over the final eight weeks of the season.
Quick picks
Barkley over 83.5 rushing and receiving yards (-113): Barkley is in new threads this season and I like his chances of having a strong debut.
The two-time Pro Bowler was single-handedly keeping the New York Giants in games last season, averaging 88.7 scrimmage yards behind a horrible offensive line.
I expect Philadelphia to let him loose against a team which struggled to contain RBs last year.
The Packers allowed the 11th-most rushing yards and 12th-most receiving yards to tailbacks in 2023, according to Draftedge.com.
De’Andre Swift was Philly’s top RB last season and he averaged 78.9 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. Swift has always been a “Barkley Lite” and I expect the real deal to take things to another level.
Picks made at 12:14 p.m. ET 09/05/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.