The Toronto Blue Jays look to bounce back against the Minnesota Twins.
The pregame narrative: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went hitless last night but I’m expecting him to rebound and have a productive outing tonight. I’m also placing a wager on the Blue Jays to win with the red-hot Jose Berrios on the mound.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Twins on Aug. 31.
Blue Jays picks vs. Twins
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Best Bet: Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases (-112)
Vladdy failed to cash this bet yesterday in a 2-0 loss. I’m chalking that up as a tough matchup and hopping back on the wagon today.
Guerrero is still on a monumental heater, don’t get it wrong. Since the all-star break, he is slashing .404/.482/.801 with 13 home runs, 17 doubles and just 14 strikeouts.
Pablo Lopez was a tough matchup for the Blue Jays, but I don’t feel the same threat with today’s starter.
Zebby Matthews is having a strong start to his MLB career, posting a 3.00 ERA in his first three starts. What is less impressive was his time spent in Triple-A earlier this season (5.68 ERA across four starts). He was called up due to injuries, not his stellar play.
Vladdy is now sitting second in the majors in hits (167) due to his otherworldly last month and a half. I don’t predict an incoming cold streak for Toronto’s star hitter.
Instead, I’m taking a prop he’s been consistently cashing at a reasonable price.
Key stat: Guerrero has topped this total in six of his last eight games.
Quick pick
Blue Jays moneyline (+123): To continue with Matthews, the righty allows a 37% hard-hit rate and sits well below average in both whiff rate (20.2%) and chase rate (25.0%), per Baseball Savant.
This could be just what the Blue Jays need to get their offence back on track. Toronto strikes out the sixth-fewest times per game (7.5) and should make Matthews work for every out.
Jose Berrios gets the call for the Jays and he’s the more seasoned MLB starter and has been dialled in over his last four starts.
He owns a 1.88 ERA and has pitched seven or more innings in each contest during that span. Toronto is 4-0 in Berrios’ past four starts and I like the Jays again tonight at plus money.
Royce Lewis under 1.5 bases (-139): On top of Berrios’ recent success, Lewis hasn’t been very good lately.
In his last 13 starts, Lewis has surpassed 1.5 bases just once, so this line caught my eye immediately. Over that time, he’s hitting .204 with a measly .241 SLG and just two walks compared to 17 Ks.
The third baseman is ice cold right now and I’m looking to take advantage with Berrios on the mound.
Picks made at 11:07 a.m. on 08/31/24.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.