Recent MVP and Cy Young winners headline Friday’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Paul Goldschmidt has been much better lately than his season-long numbers indicate, and I think he has a nice value to cash his bases prop. I’m also backing Blake Snell in a plus-money combo wager with Connor Norby.
Check out how I’m backing them in the top MLB prop bets for Aug. 30.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Goldschmidt over 1.5 bases (+190)
Father Time seems to have finally knocked on Goldschmidt’s door, as the 36-year-old first baseman is having by far the worst season of his career.
Even so, I see value in a bases prop priced this high. The 2022 NL MVP has looked more like his old self over the past month-and-change.
Since July 21, Goldy has a .500 SLG and has cashed the over on 1.5 bases in 16 of 33 games (48.4%).
One thing he hasn’t lost amid this season’s decline is his ability to hit the ball hard.
Goldschmidt has a 48.3% hard-hit rate, meaning he produces an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater on nearly half of his balls in play. That hard-hit rate ranks in the 88th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
And although he’s got a dreadful .398 SLG — on track to be the first sub-.445 SLG of his career — there are reasons to believe it should be higher. Baseball Savant has his xSLG at .440
Yankees starter Marcus Stroman will be on the mound in New York tonight, and that’s just the guy Goldy should be eager to see. Stroman has allowed a .311/.377/.503 slash line to opponents over his past eight starts.
It’s also worth noting that Yankee Stadium is only of baseball’s most homer-friendly parks and that Goldschmidt has excellent career numbers against Stroman.
Key stat: In 27 at-bats against Stroman, Goldschmidt has 11 hits (.407 BA) with three home runs and two doubles.
Quick picks
Parlay: Snell 8+ Ks, Norby 1+ hits (+165): I thought about backing Snell’s strikeout wager on its own, but the juice was a bit much. I do like this K total for him, though.
Snell had a peculiar outing last time out, tossing 3.0 hitless innings in which he struck out five and walked six. Before that, Snell had collected eight or more Ks in five straight starts.
The Miami Marlins, who are facing Snell, have the highest chase rate in the majors, per Baseball Savant. That quells concerns about the lefty going off the rails with a bunch of walks again. Snell’s 12.1 K/9 would lead the majors if he’d hit the innings threshold.
To turn this into a plus-money wager, I’m looking for one base knock from the Marlins’ hottest hitter.
Norby, acquired at the trade deadline, has hit safely in all 10 games since joining Miami and is batting .350 in that span. He was also recently promoted to the leadoff spot, which maximizes his hits opportunities.
Austin Slater over 1.5 bases (-106): At Coors Field, against a pitcher he has tormented in the past, Slater is a worthwhile pick to collect multiple bases.
Slater will see Colorado’s Austin Gomber, a lefty who has allowed a .516 SLG over his past 10 starts.
In his career against Gomber, Slater is 9-for-19 (.474) with a pair of triples and three doubles.
Oh, and Slater has the platoon advantage tonight. He owns an .800 OPS against lefties and a .642 OPS against righties in his career.
Picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 08/30/2024.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.