While the Minnesota Twins continue their playoff push, the Toronto Blue Jays look to play spoiler in tonight’s series opener.
The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman has struggled in the past against Minnesota, and I’m calling on the Twins to get to him again tonight. The Twins have lost eight of their past 10 games and certainly need a spark.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Twins on Aug. 30.
Blue Jays picks vs. Twins
MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here
Best Bet: Twins over 4.5 runs (+105)
Minnesota is probably going to have to hit its way out of this current downward spiral, and I think that can happen tonight.
For one thing, the Twins know how to rake against Gausman. They’ve seen him plenty of times before and teed off in recent seasons.
Last year, the Twins scored six runs off Gausman over 4.2 innings in a 7-6 loss.
This past May, the Twins scored seven runs off him over 3.0 innings in a 10-8 loss.
Losses, aside, Minnesota did its job in both matchups to cash this bet. Its current lineup is 33-for-111 (.297) with five home runs, seven doubles and 14 walks against Gausman.
So although Gausman has been solid over the past two months (3.13 ERA in nine starts), I think the Twins have shown enough for me to give this pick some consideration.
What puts me over the top is Minnesota’s ability to do damage at home.
The Twins have the best home SLG (.454) and OPS in baseball (.789) and are averaging a crisp 5.0 runs per game at Target Field.
Key stat: Minnesota has gone over 4.5 runs in seven of its past 11 games.
Quick pick
Willi Castro over 0.5 runs (+100): The switch-hitting Castro tends to bat leadoff against right-handed pitchers, so he’ll be in prime position to score for the home team tonight.
And although his numbers in August are just okay (.713 OPS in 25 games), he’s still cashed this bet 15 times.
Given that Castro is 2-for-5 with two doubles against Gausman — and he scored when the Twins faced Gausman in May — I think he can keep that trend rolling tonight.
Picks made at 11:30 a.m. on 08/30/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.