I’m backing a pair of young bats to come through in today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Colt Keith and Corbin Carroll have been on fire. I like the former to clear his bases prop in a nice matchup and the latter to cross the plate for the surging Arizona Diamondbacks.
Check out how I’m backing them in the top MLB prop bets for Aug. 28.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Keith over 1.5 bases (+132)
What if I told you you could back a player batting .405 in his last 10 games to clear his bases prop at plus money? Against a struggling pitcher, no less.
Well, that’s what’s going on here.
Keith has been having a respectable rookie season for the Detroit Tigers, posting a .264/.315/.395 slash line as a plus defender. And he’s caught fire lately with four multi-hit games in his last six starts.
Only two of those hits went for extra bases (one double, one HR) but he has a nice opportunity to hit for power against Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning tonight.
Canning has a miserable 6.14 ERA across his last 10 starts. Opponents are slugging .470 against him in that span with nine home runs. One of those outings was against the Tigers, when Keith went 1-for-3 with a double.
Baseball Savant’s advanced metrics paint an equally grim picture for Canning. He ranks in the 21st percentile or lower for xBA (.266), xERA (4.78), K rate (17.0%) and hard-hit rate (42.2%).
The red-hot rookie should have himself a night.
Key stat: Keith is batting .400 vs. RHPs in his last 10 games.
Quick picks
Carroll to score (-132): Carroll’s sophomore slump hasn’t been pretty. The 2023 NL Rookie of the Year is batting .223 after posting a .285 mark last season and was under the Mendoza Line at the start of June.
But he’s still scoring at an impressive clip and is heating up at the plate, too.
Carroll has scored 94 runs this year and 25 of them have come in August. That’s the most in MLB this month. He’s slashing .259/.330/.600 in that span with 10 extra-base hits.
That makes him a threat to put himself across the plate in one swing. But just getting on base should do.
The Diamondbacks are 11-5 this month thanks to an offensive explosion. They rank first in wRC+ (133) and SLG (.486) and have have the fifth-lowest K rate (19.4%).
Arizona hosts Luis Severino and the New York Mets.
Severino has enjoyed a solid year but Carroll found success in their lone meeting, going 2-for-3 with a pair of singles off New York’s right-hander.
Picks made at 2:22 p.m. ET on 08/28/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.