The Philadelphia Phillies look to sweep the Houston Astros at Citizens Bank Park tonight.
The pregame narrative: J.T. Realmuto has been on a tear and I expect him to stay hot in a plus matchup. Also, Jose Altuve is worth backing to score against one of baseball’s worst arms.
Check out my Astros vs. Phillies prop picks for Aug. 28.
Astros vs. Phillies prop picks
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Best Bet: Realmuto over 1.5 bases (+145)
Realmuto has been on another level lately.
Philadelphia’s catcher is batting .352 with a 1.045 OPS across his last 15 games. He’s cashed this wager eight times including in each of his last five outings. And in those five games, he’s hit four doubles and two home runs.
Now that’s a heater.
Getting Realmuto at this price tag seems generous, especially considering almost all of his damage lately has been against righties:
| BA | OBP | SLG | XBH | |
| Last 15 games vs. RHP | .436 | .463 | .846 | 10 |
| Last 15 games vs. LHP | .133 | .235 | .133 | 0 |
Spencer Arrighetti has been a solid arm for the Astros lately, posting a 3.16 ERA over his last seven starts.
Still, he ranks in the 36th percentile for barrell rate and 26th percentile for hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant, and is susceptible to giving up extra bases.
Arrighetti also has a 5.49 ERA on the road this year.
Key stat: Realmuto has 19 total bases in his last five games (3.8/game).
Quick pick
Altuve to score (-113): Altuve is going through a rough patch right now but there’s no better time to back Houston’s leadoff man.
Walker has been legitimately horrible for the Phillies this season. He owns a bloated 6.26 ERA to pair with a 1.58 WHIP. Both marks would be the worst in MLB if he had thrown enough innings to qualify.
The 32-year-old has a 9.26 ERA across three starts this month, putting 23 players on base in 11.2 innings.
Altuve is 11-for-32 against Walker (.344 BA) with three doubles and a home run. His 74 runs pace the Astros and his .350 OBP ranks second behind only Yordan Alvarez.
He should find his way on and score today.
MLB picks made at 10:42 a.m. ET on 08/28/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.