The Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners close the night behind two strong starting pitchers.
The pregame narrative: Bryce Miller makes the start for Seattle and I’m backing the over on his strikeouts prop. Ryan Pepiot has been strong for the Rays so a fade is in play for two of the Mariners bats on Monday.
Check out my Rays vs. Mariners prop picks for Aug. 26.
Rays vs. Mariners prop picks
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Best Bet: Miller over 6.5 strikeouts (+106)
The offensive stats for both teams are not pretty so I’m starting by making a wager on Seattle’s big arm.
Miller isn’t a strikeout artist by any means but he still has a respectable 8.3 K/9 and Tampa Bay’s offence sits near the bottom of the majors in strikeouts per game (9.14).
Additionally, the Rays have been downright terrible against right-handed pitching all season. The lineup hits .224 against righties with a 24.9% K rate.
Miller has pitched into the sixth inning or further in 21 of 25 starts this year. Against Tampa Bay, he’ll have a prime opportunity to work late into this game and tally up the strikeouts.
Key stat: Three of the last four right-handed pitchers to start against the Rays have surpassed this total.
Quick picks
Rodriguez under 0.5 runs (-139): Julio Rodriguez has played 12 games since returning from injury and has scored a measly two runs.
It’s been a combination of poor offensive play and being a part of one of the worst-scoring teams in baseball.
Seattle ranks fifth last in runs scored per game (3.9) and has just three guys on the roster with over 100 plate appearances hitting over .250 on the season.
Runs have come at a premium all year long and I expect nothing less with Ryan Pepiot starting for the Rays.
Pepiot has given up two or fewer runs in seven straight starts and is starting to pitch deeper into games as he finds his role as a solid MLB starter.
I don’t expect Rodriguez’s fortunes to change tonight.
Haniger under 0.5 hits (+100): Coming back to Pepiot, the righty throws primarily three pitches: a fastball (51%), changeup (22%) and slider (20%).
Per Baseball Savant, here are Mitch Haniger’s batting averages against those pitches:
- Fastball, .205
- Changeup, .161
- Slider, .077
If Pepiot goes deep into this game as I expect he will, Haniger should have a rough night so at plus money, I’m willing to bet he goes hitless.
Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 08/26/2024.
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Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.