The New York Mets and San Diego Padres jockey for wild-card seeding tonight.
The pregame narrative: San Diego holds the NL’s second wild-card spot and is 5.5 games clear of New York, which currently sits out of the playoff picture. I’ve got two prop bets on Jackson Merrill and I am fading Mets starter Paul Blackburn.
Check out my Mets vs. Padres prop picks for Aug. 23.
Mets vs. Padres prop picks
MLB Markets: Click Here | MLB Stats: Click Here
Best Bet: Merrill over 1.5 bases (+123)
Merrill has been trading blows with Paul Skenes in the NL Rookie of the Year race.
San Diego’s centre fielder is batting .303 in August with five home runs and a 1.105 OPS. That has brought his season-long slash line to an impressive .289/.319/.486 with 18 home runs and 71 RBI.
Earlier this week, he became the betting favourite to take home the hardware.
Do I think he’ll win? No. In fact, just yesterday I placed a bet on Skenes at +100. That line has since flipped with Pittsburgh’s ace re-taking pole position after throwing six shutout innings (nine Ks).
But that’s not to take away from how good Merrill has been.
On top of having an above-average glove, he’s been on a rampage at the plate. Merrill has a hit in six of his last seven games, clearing this line in five of those contests.
He went 0-for-4 last night but is in a good spot to rebound against Blackburn.
New York’s starter ranks in the bottom-third percentile for xERA (4.36), xBA (.261), and K rate (19.3) on Baseball Savant. Blackburn mostly gives up soft contact but a player like Merrill should be able to put the bat on the ball and find a gap.
Key stat: Merrill has five extra-base hits in his last seven games.
Quick pick
Merrill over 0.5 RBI (+170): I want to double-dip on Merrill at plus money.
The value here is insane to me. Merrill is batting sixth in San Diego’s lineup behind the likes of Manny Machado, Xander Bogarts and Jake Cronenworth.
His 71 RBI are the fourth-most on the team and 17 of those have come this month (five in his last four games).
Opponents are getting on base at a .330 clip against Blackburn since he joined New York. Merrill should have an opportunity to drive some of his teammates home.
Blackburn under 17.5 outs (-122): Blackburn has cleared this line in three of four games as a Met but I’m not sold.
He landed on exactly 6.0 IP (18.0 outs) in each of those contests and was going up against some cupcake opponents in the Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Angels.
Those teams rank 29th, 28th and 24th, respectively, in wRC+ on the season. San Diego is seventh.
Blackburn’s underlying numbers are ugly and he’s going up against a lineup which can expose that. Fade him tonight.
Picks made at 12:08 p.m. ET 08/23/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.